* Russia to gain against stable oil price, global economy
* Pre-Presidential election year should boost spending
* Heavyweights Gazprom and Sberbank among analyst tips
By John Bowker and Zlata Garasyuta
MOSCOW, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Russian stocks will offer investors over 20 percent gains in the coming year, more than double the growth recorded in 2010 to date, as the government hikes spending against a smoother economic backdrop, a Reuters poll showed.
The poll of 13 analysts, taken over the past week, showed a median end-2011 forecast of 2,100 points for Russia's dollar-based RTS index, 22 percent up on Tuesday's close of 1,721.91.
That compares to an around 11 percent gain in the current year to date -- although a far cry from the 146 percent change seen in 2009 -- as Russia recovered from the financial crisis and more recently won the right to host football's World Cup in 2018, boosting steel and transport shares.
Analysts said that if oil prices remain stable and there are no major global shocks, investors could pile back into Russia and help reduce its cavernous discount to emerging market peers.
"As long as oil prices remain above the danger level of $70 a barrel, and as long as there is no world crisis, investors will become more interested in high beta markets like Russia," said Kingsmill Bond, chief strategist at Moscow's Troika Dialog.
Russian shares have traded at a 40 percent discount to emerging market peers for much of the year, prompting Russia focused fund managers to call them the cheapest in the world.
"The discount for Russia is at a record low ... it should be narrower," said Ovanes Oganysyan at Renaissance Capital.
PRE-ELECTION YEAR
The analysts saw plenty of political drivers to lure investors to Russia in 2011, not least higher government spending ahead of the 2012 Presidential election.
"The drivers are first that it's a pre-election year, where we expect a lot of budget expenditure," said UBS strategist Bella Rabinovich, although she added uncertainty over who would run could also cause volatility.
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is widely expected to covet his former post, although incumbent and anointed successor Dmitry Medvedev may have another tilt.
Troika's Bond also highlighted pro-Western initiatives such as Russia's expected ascendency to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and its $32 billion privatisation plan as marking out Russia as less insular than in previous years.
On a corporate level, analysts named big guns Gazprom, LUKOIL and Sberbank as likely to attract the most investment.
"We are forecasting 20 percent RTS growth next year because that is the average net income growth forecast for the Russian companies we cover. A driver is a $78 a barrel oil price assumption, which should drive oil & gas stocks," said UBS' Rabinovich.
A similar group of analysts predicted an end-year 2010 number of 1,756 when last polled by Reuters in September, so they need a short rally to be proven accurate.
($1=31.10 Rouble) (Writing by John Bowker, additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)