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POLL-Paris stocks seen gaining another 10 pct by end 2011

Published 03/24/2011, 10:16 AM
Updated 03/24/2011, 10:20 AM

* CAC 40 seen rising on strong macro, corporate data

* Stocks seen cheap despite euro zone, geopolitical risks

By Blaise Robinson and Alexandre Boksenbaum-Granier

PARIS, March 24 (Reuters) - France's CAC 40 stock index was seen making steady gains in 2011, shrugging off concerns over the violence in Arab countries and the impact from Japan's earthquake on the global economy, a Reuters poll found.

The CAC 40 was seen at 4,290 points by end-2011, up nearly 10 percent from Wednesday's close at 3,913.73 points, according to the median forecast of around 36 analysts and fund managers taken over the past week.

That was up from the 4,200 level forecast in the December poll. The latest poll also saw the CAC 40 at 4,000 points by mid-year, up 2.2 percent from Wednesday's close and higher than the 3,975 mid-2011 consensus in December.

France's blue-chip index, in which influential stocks include multinationals such as L'Oreal, Sanofi-Aventis and Total , is up 2.9 percent so far this year after ending 2010 with a loss of 3.3 percent.

Analysts said improvement on the global macroeconomic front as well as strong corporate results should support French stocks, seen as relatively cheap in terms of valuation.

"I believe that the economy but also equities, which remain at low valuation levels, will be able to absorb the Arab and Japanese shocks," said Francois Chevallier, strategist at Banque Leonardo, who sees the CAC at 4,250 points in mid-2011 and at 4,500 points at end-2011.

The CAC 40 carries a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, close to levels seen at the start of the bull market in March 2009, and remains well below a 20-year average of 15.6, according to Thomson Reuters data.

VOLATILITY TO REMAIN HIGH

Several analysts, however, see strong volatility for most of the year as the market faces headwinds such as the euro zone debt crisis and the strong rally in commodity prices.

"We anticipate spikes in volatility triggered by tension on sovereign debt, the end of the second phase of the quantitative easing in the United States, and the rise in commodity prices. This adds to geopolitical risks and the Japanese situation," said Michael Aflalo, head of balanced management at Natixis Asset Management, who sees the CAC at 4,150 points in mid-2011 and at 4,400 points at end-2011.

(Polling by Blaise Robinson and Alexandre Boksenbaum-Granier; additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)

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