* DAX seen at 7,300 points by mid-2011, 7,700 by end-2011
* Strategists divided over emerging markets impact
By Christoph Steitz and Daniela Pegna
FRANKFURT, March 24 (Reuters) - Tensions in the Arab world and the crisis in Japan will not hold back Germany's benchmark stock index from reaching a nearly four-year high by year-end, boosted by growth in emerging markets, a Reuters poll found. The DAX, which comprises the 30 biggest listed stocks of Europe's largest economy, was seen at 7,300 points by mid-2011, 5.6 percent higher than last year's official close, according to the median of a poll of 29 equity strategists.
However, that is lower than the 7,400-points estimate in the December poll, mainly due to a massive sell-off last week after a 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami caused a nuclear crisis in Japan.
Some strategists could not provide forecasts for the poll as they had not yet factored in the impact from the earthquake.
Additional pressure on the DAX came from widespread political unrest that has gripped the Middle East and northern Africa (MENA) region.
This caused the DAX -- which had reached a 2011 high of 7,441 in February, a year-to-date gain of 7.6 percent -- to fall back to October 2010 levels. After a slight recovery, it is now down 1.6 percent since the beginning of the year.
"Shocking news such as the escalation of unrest in the Arab world or the devastating disaster in Japan are causing a lot of uncertainty and nervousness. The euphoria is gone," said Wolfgang Duwe, equity strategist at Bremer Landesbank.
"But the depressed atmosphere should not last too long," Duwe added, pointing to a strong global recovery in which Germany's export-oriented companies can participate.
In fact, the DAX is seen ending the year up 13.2 percent from Wednesday's close of 6,804 at 7,700 points, its highest close since Jan. 14, 2008, and also slightly above the 7,625 points estimate in the December poll, the median of strategists polled over the last week showed.
Forecasts ranged from 5,900 to 8,600.
EMERGING GROWTH
Strategists at Silvia Quandt predict a similar upswing and see the DAX ending at 8,600 points, the highest forecast in the poll, as the country's companies greatly benefit from growth in emerging markets.
The DAX index includes global bellwethers such as engineering conglomerate Siemens, carmakers Volkswagen and BMW, steel group ThyssenKrupp and chemicals maker BASF.
Since most of those companies generate a major share of revenues and profits abroad, the benchmark index also reflects growth trends abroad and is more than just a proxy for the domestic economy.
Other strategists, however, are less optimistic.
Helaba strategist Markus Reinwand, for example, gave one of the most bearish forecasts, seeing the DAX at 6,400 points by mid-2011 and even falling to 6,200 points by the end of the year, due to fiscal tightening in emerging countries.
"A lot of developing countries such as China and India are tightening monetary policy reins to avoid an economic overheating," he said, adding that the export-focused companies are likely to suffer from this.
(Additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)