* Brazil stocks seen up 15 percent by 2011 year-end
* Petrobras to recover from slump this year
By Luciana Lopez
SAO PAULO, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Brazilian stocks will gain more than 15 percent by the end of next year as Latin America's biggest economy grows at a more sustainable pace, although uncertainty abroad could eat into gains, a Reuters poll found.
Equities will climb as the economy grows at a robust pace, although slower than the breakneck rate of this year, analysts said.
But the possibility of shocks from abroad could still take a toll, much like the ongoing fiscal crisis in Europe this year, which has sent repeated waves of risk aversion through global markets.
Sao Paulo stock exchange's benchmark Bovespa index will reach 80,000 points by the end of the next year, over 15 percent higher than its Tuesday close of 69,337.64, according to the median forecast of 23 analysts, strategists and fund managers surveyed by Reuters over the past week.
End-year forecasts ranged from 58,000 to 90,000.
In addition, the Bovespa index should rise to 73,000 by mid-2011, the poll found. A poll in September put the Bovespa at just over 78,000 by mid-2011.
Brazil's economy has become an investor draw in a world still struggling with the global economic crisis.
While the economy has slowed since the first quarter, when it notched its fastest annual growth in at least 14 years, the country should still see expansion of better than 7 percent this year. Third-quarter data, due on Thursday, should reinforce those expectations.
An ongoing recovery in other countries could help, too. The United States -- the world's largest economy, and a major influence on Latin America -- has shown signs of picking up, though that country remains vulnerable.
"We believe in a very good year for the Brazilian economy, with sustained expansion in the gross domestic product," said Paulo Esteves of Gradual Investimentos in Sao Paulo.
"The growth of emerging powers and the recovery of the U.S. economy will support growth in the Bovespa, which in our view won't sink again to its 2010 low of 57,600 next year."
SHOCKS TO THE GLOBAL SYSTEM
In fact, with Brazil growing briskly, some of the greatest risks to equities here come from abroad. Debt-laden European countries have sparked fears of sluggish global growth next year, and more surprises of that kind could hobble the Bovespa's advance.
"The European situation is still unresolved," said Jose Francisco de Lima Goncalves, chief economist with Banco Fator.
And commodity prices could come down if China, which consumes huge quantities of raw materials, decides to clamp down on credit to control inflation, he added.
China last year surpassed the United States as Brazil's main trading partner. It is, for example, the main customer of mining giant Vale, the world's largest producer of iron ore and a heavyweight in the Bovespa index.
Nevertheless, at least some equities in Brazil could post strong years. Among those stocks are shares of state-controlled energy company Petrobras, which have lost around a third of their value this year on the swirl of questions around a massive capitalization plan and fears of ramped-up government interference.
With the $70 billion operation put to bed, though, the company can get on with tapping massive offshore oil reserves, which Brazil hopes will vault it up the ranks of petroleum exporters.
That could set the stock up to gain in 2011, said Ricardo Tadeu Martins, chief analyst with the Planner Corretora.
"Investors felt a little lost in the capitalization process," Martins said.
Next year, "you wind up without some of those concerns that dogged the stock all through this year," he added.
(Reporting by Luciana Lopez, additional polling by Bangalore Polling Unit; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter)