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Paycom Software hit with six downgrades on lowered FY sales outlook; Shares down 36%

Published 10/31/2023, 05:31 PM
Updated 11/01/2023, 06:27 AM
© Reuters.  Paycom Software (PAYC) crashes 26% after slashing full-year revenue forecast
PAYC
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(Updated - November 1, 2023 6:25 AM EDT)

Paycom Software (NYSE:PAYC) shares fell more than 35% in pre-market Wednesday after the fintech company reported weaker-than-expected sales for the third quarter and offered lackluster guidance for the current quarter.

The company reported earnings per share of $1.77 on revenue of $406 million, missing the average analyst consensus for earnings of $1.61 on revenue of $411.2 million.

Recurring revenue rose 22% year-over-year to $398.8 million, missing the expected $403.9 million.
Adjusted gross margin contracted 20 basis points year-over-year to 83.7%, while also coming in below the expected 84.4%.

“Our third quarter fundamentals were strong with solid revenue and earnings growth,” said Paycom’s founder, chairman and CEO, Chad Richison.

For this quarter, the company sees revenue in the range of $420-425 million. FY revenue is expected between $1.679 billion to $1.684 billion, lower compared to the previous forecast.

Analysts were looking for Q4 revenue of $453.3 million and FY revenue of $1.72 billion.

At least six Wall Street analysts downgraded shares following the guidance cut. An analyst from Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform from Outperform "as the growth profile is expected to deteriorate significantly."

"Paycom has become a transition story and there are challenges looming to reinvigorate its top-line growth since a rebound in the hiring market is unlikely to occur anytime soon given the macro and geopolitical uncertainties and the rate-cycle looks to be ending. This means the business is heading to an average industry growth trajectory and multiples," the analyst wrote.

An analyst from Piper Sandler also cut the stock's rating to Neutral amid slower near-term growth.

"We are downgrading PAYC to Neutral due to revenue deceleration; growth of 10%+ vs. 25%+ previously; and potential operational changes that need to be made to protect margins."

On the other hand, an analyst from DA Davidson is a buyer on the weakness.

"If the strategic explanation related to short-term BETI headwinds that will turn into positives is correct, and also the statements that new business wins and industry demand are strong, there's strong upside potential; if not, downside does look limited," the analyst said.

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