Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

Oxford Economics Sees Exodus of Expat Workers From Across Gulf

Published 05/22/2020, 12:53 PM
Updated 05/22/2020, 02:09 PM
© Bloomberg. The Kingdom Tower, operated by Kingdom Holding Co., centre, stands on the skyline above the King Fahd highway in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016. Saudi Arabia and the emirate of Abu Dhabi plan to more than double their production of petrochemicals to cash in on growing demand. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- Population in some of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council countries may drop as much as 10% as the impact of the coronavirus forces their largely foreign workers to leave the oil-rich nations, according to Oxford Economics.

“The dependence of the GCC on expat workers and large swathes of job losses as the lockdowns bite in key sectors may result in significant falls in population, which could have longer-lasting implications,” Scott Livermore, chief economist at Oxford Economics Middle East, wrote in a report.

The Gulf Cooperation Council countries are: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman.

The report also said:

  • “The GCC is in recession as lockdowns to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 and the ramifications of low oil prices hit the non-oil economies. As a result, employment across the GCC could fall by around 13%, with peak-to-trough job losses of some 900,000 in the UAE and 1.7m in Saudi Arabia”
  • “Dependence on expat workers in vulnerable sectors means the burden of job losses will fall on the expat population. Combined with visas depending on employment and lack of a social safety net, an expat exodus is likely as travel restrictions are eased. This could result in the population declining by between 4% (in Saudi Arabia and Oman) and around 10% (in the UAE and Qatar).
  • “While an expat exodus may mean that the GCC ‘exports’ some of the impact of recession, it will also have some adverse consequences on key sectors, such as possible labor shortages as the hospitality sector recovers, an additional drag on property markets and potential price pressures in certain quarters.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

© Bloomberg. The Kingdom Tower, operated by Kingdom Holding Co., centre, stands on the skyline above the King Fahd highway in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Monday, Nov. 28, 2016. Saudi Arabia and the emirate of Abu Dhabi plan to more than double their production of petrochemicals to cash in on growing demand. Photographer: Bloomberg/Bloomberg

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.