Investing.com -- Oppenheimer cut its price target on Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) to $1,040 from $1,065 due to dollar strength but sees an attractive setup ahead of fourth quarter results.
The firm expects upside in subscriber growth, supported by popular content like Squid Game season 2, NFL Christmas games, and key documentaries. Advertising growth and the 2025 content slate are seen as additional catalysts.
“Lower competition from Hollywood collapse should drive NFLX's 2% churn lower and significant content leverage,” analyst said.
Netflix's valuation, trading at 29 times 2026 earnings, poses a risk, with a potential 5% downside if shares re-test August lows. The brokerage also trimmed its 2025 revenue and earnings estimates by 4% and 6%, respectively, citing an 8.5% rise in the dollar index since September.
Though for the long term Oppenheimer remains optimistic about reduced competition improving churn rates and supporting content leverage, with monetization gains from live events and advertising on the horizon.
The new price target reflects a valuation of 20 times projected 2030 earnings, discounted at 7%.
“We believe NFLX‘s initiatives such as password sharing rules, advertising, and optimizing subscriber plan choices will drive subscriber growth and average revenue per membership (ARM), therefore leading to higher revenue,” analyst added.