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Nikkei slips on yen; Japan leadership vote eyed

Published 09/13/2010, 10:50 PM
Updated 09/13/2010, 10:52 PM
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* Yen hits fresh 15-year high, knocks stocks from 3-week peak

* Market awaits ruling party leadership vote, seen close

* Ozawa win seen positive in the short-term

* Golden Cross aids benchmark but resistance looms

By Aiko Hayashi

TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Tokyo's Nikkei fell 0.2 percent on Tuesday after the yen hit a fresh 15-year high, knocking the stock benchmark from a three-week closing high logged the day before, while investors awaited a Japan leadership vote in the afternoon.

The ruling Democratic Party of Japan's leadership vote, in which powerbroker Ichiro Ozawa is challenging Prime Minister Naoto Kan, may reset the country's fiscal priorities.

The Nikkei has built on gains since a short-term buying signal emerged late last week when its 5-day moving average pierced above its 25-day moving average, forming a "Golden Cross".

But market players see solid resistance looming at 9,460, roughly around its 75-day moving average as well as the bottom of the Nikkei's Ichimoku cloud, around 9,530. Ichimoku charts are popular with Japanese traders.

"Generally speaking, the Nikkei is poised for more gains, with its 5-day and 25-day moving averages having formed a 'Golden Cross', but investor caution before the vote result weighed. The index has also already gained three days in a row," said Koichi Nosaka, a market analyst at Securities Japan, Inc.

Market players said there was a reluctance to take positions actively before the Democratic Party vote result is known, probably after the market close.

CLOSE CALL

Ozawa has vowed to act to curb the yen, including solo intervention in currency markets, as its rise to 15-year highs is threatening Japan's economic recovery. Kan's team has repeatedly expressed its concern about the yen's climb, but so far has refrained from stepping into the market.

"The result is expected to be a close call. While opinion polls have favoured Kan, the stock market overwhelmingly wants to see Ozawa win because he is seen as a more aggressive leader, including his view on currencies," said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer at Tachibana Securities.

A Reuters poll has showed that analysts believe an Ozawa victory would likely be positive for the stock market in the short term due to his willingness to spend more to shore up the economy, but are uncertain over the long-term given the possible impact of such policies on the country's finances.

The benchmark Nikkei fell 21.17 points to 9,300.65. It rose 0.9 percent on Monday to its highest close since Aug. 19.

Support is seen at 9,231, which is its kijun-sen on its daily Ichimoku charts. The kijun-sen is an indicator of medium-term trends and can be either support or resistance.

The broader Topix was almost unchanged at 837.50.

The dollar fell to a new 15-year low versus the yen in early trade, pressured by a fall in U.S. bond yields as well as selling in cross/yen pairs such as Aussie/yen.

There is also speculation that Kan may beat Ozawa in the leadership vote later in the day, which is prompting those who went long on the dollar to dump their positions, a Japanese bank trader said.

The dollar fell as low as 83.25 yen.

Shares of exporters fell, with Advantest Corp slipping 1 percent to 1,640 yen and Toyota Motor Corp falling 1.3 percent to 2,910 yen.

Shares of Fast Retailing fell 1.5 percent to 11,530 yen after JP Morgan began coverage of the operator of the Uniqlo casual clothing chain with an "Underweight" rating and a price target of 11,200 yen. (Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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