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Nikkei edges lower; PM's win may test sentiment

Published 09/14/2010, 05:17 AM
Updated 09/14/2010, 05:20 AM
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* Yen hits fresh 15-year high, nudges stocks from 3-week peak

* Market range-bound ahead of ruling party leadership vote

* After the bell, Prime Minister Kan beats rival Ozawa

* Some say Kan win could test upbeat sentiment going forward

* Nikkei futures in Singapore fall 0.7 pct from Osaka close

By Shinichi Saoshiro and Aiko Hayashi

TOKYO, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average held near a three-week closing peak logged a day earlier despite the yen hitting a 15-year high against the dollar, but Prime Minister Naoto Kan's win in a party leadership vote may take some steam out of recent upward momentum.

After the bell, Kan beat rival Ichiro Ozawa, a veteran powerbroker who was seen as more likely to pursue expansionary fiscal policies and act to combat the yen's strength.

"Kan's not very attractive for the markets. It will probably mean more of the same in terms of policy, so there is no reason to welcome him, said Mitsuhige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.

"There may be more (upward) pressure on the yen, and there is the question of whether there will be intervention under Kan's leadership," he said.

The benchmark finished down 22.51 points at 9,299.31 but after the Tokyo close, Nikkei futures traded in Singapore were at 9,180, around 0.7 percent lower compared to their close in Osaka before the results of the vote.

Other analysts said Kan's win would be largely neutral for the market.

"Since Mr. Kan's victory was expected its should not have a significant short term effect on markets. Immediately after the announcement there was a slight strengthening of the yen but this is probably of only transient interest," said Jonathan Allum, equity strategist at Mizuho International in London.

The broader Topix fell 0.3 percent to 834.87.

The Nikkei is 5.4 percent above a 16-month closing low struck two weeks ago, and has built on gains since a short-term buying signal emerged late last week when its 5-day moving average pierced above its 25-day moving average, forming a "Golden Cross".

"Worries that the global economy may suffer are continuing to ease following upbeat Chinese data and after economic forecasts were upgraded in the euro zone," said Masumi Yamamoto, a market analyst at Daiwa Securities Capital Markets.

"This helped stocks weather the yen's latest surge."

The euro zone economy is likely to grow almost twice as fast this year as previously thought, the European Commission forecast on Monday.

The outlook revision added to the buoyant mood generated following strong Chinese economic data on Saturday and from investor relief that new banking regulations set over the weekend will not unleash a rush to raise equity.

But market players see solid resistance looming at 9,460, roughly around its 75-day moving average as well as the bottom of the Nikkei's Ichimoku cloud, around 9,530. Ichimoku charts are popular with Japanese traders.

Support is seen at 9,231, which is its kijun-sen on its daily Ichimoku charts. The kijun-sen is an indicator of medium-term trends and can be either support or resistance.

The dollar fell to a fresh 15-year low of 83.09 yen immediately on the vote, but later traded at around 83.35.

Shares of exporters fell, with Advantest Corp slipping 0.4 percent to 1,650 yen and Toyota Motor Corp falling 1.7 percent to 2,899 yen.

Japan's largest banks extended gains after their U.S. peers were among the top performers on Wall Street the previous day on relief after a weekend decision by global regulators and central bankers on capital rules was in line with expectations.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group climbed 1.2 percent to 2,617 yen and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rose 0.7 percent to 414 yen.

Some 1.54 billion shares changed hands on the Tokyo exchange's first section. Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones, 887 to 582. (Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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