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Nikkei crawls higher, but wary before jobs data

Published 09/02/2010, 09:28 PM
Updated 09/02/2010, 09:32 PM

* Good US data adds to investor reassurance on global economy

* Wariness ahead of jobs data likely to cap Nikkei near 9,200

* Recovery now likely cyclical, too early to trust - analyst

By Elaine Lies

TOKYO, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average climbed 0.7 percent on Friday as more encouraging data reassured investors about the state of the global economic recovery and sparked short-covering.

But gains are likely to be capped by wariness ahead of closely-watched U.S. August non-farm payrolls data later on Friday, as well as investor concern about whether the recent rush of upbeat indicators signals a true recovery or not.

"The macroeconomic indicators are all coming in pretty well, but it seems likely to be more a cyclical recovery than anything at this point, with good numbers over the next month or so but no real recovery just yet," said Nagayuki Yamagishi, a strategist with Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"Still, this is reassuring for the market, especially since so many of this week's U.S. indicators were expected to be bad."

Data from the National Association of Realtors showed pending U.S. home resales rose unexpectedly in July and a separate report showed new claims for unemployment insurance fell for a second straight week.

The figures came on the heels of strong U.S. manufacturing data on Wednesday that, along with good Chinese manufacturing data and stronger-than-expected growth in Australia, have eased, for now, investor fears about the strength of the global economic recovery.

Additional encouragement came after the European Central Bank on Thursday raised economic growth forecasts on the back of a strong second quarter.

But the upcoming jobs figures and a three-day weekend in the United States will mean many investors are likely to close out positions, market players said.

August non-farm payrolls are forecast to decline by 100,000. In July, they fell 131,000.

"Should the jobs data prove bad, this could lead to a further strengthening in the yen, which would definitely become a headwind for stocks," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager of equities at Nikko Cordial Securities.

The benchmark Nikkei edged up 63.79 points to 9,126.58, while the broader Topix gained 0.6 percent to 824.61.

The next targets for the Nikkei will likely be around 9,280 and then 9,360, highs hit in late August, a market analyst said. The Nikkei's 25-day moving average currently comes in at 9,257.

If it resumes falling, the next technical level is 8,697, a 61.8 percent retracement of the rally from its March 2009 low to its April 2010 high.

"You actually can't say that the rise in shares sufficiently reflects the string of good indicators," said Yamagishi at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, adding that Japanese shares are likely to continue to lag world markets until there is more confirmation of a recovery.

Exporters gained, with Canon Inc up 1.3 percent at 3,550 yen and Sony Corp up 2.1 percent at 2,479 yen.

Shares of plant engineering firm JGC Corp climbed 1.5 percent to 1,396 yen after Spanish engineering and renewable energy group Abengoa said it had attracted the Japanese company as a minority investor in two solar mirror-power plants being built in southern Spain. (Reporting by Elaine Lies; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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