Selloff or Market Correction? Either Way, Here's What to Do NextSee Overvalued Stocks

Next Global EPS Recession is Starting and US is Yet to Price in True Impact - Citi

Published 11/03/2022, 07:05 AM
Updated 11/03/2022, 07:12 AM
© Reuters. Next Global EPS Recession is Starting and US is Yet to Price in True Impact - Citi
SPY
-

By Senad Karaahmetovic

The U.S. market is slow in pricing in the EPS recession, which is about to begin, Citi’s strategists told clients in a note today.

The upcoming global EPS recession would be the 8th in the past 50 years, according to equity strategists. History shows that prior EPS recessions lasted 2 years and saw earnings drop 31%.

Citi remains well under consensus for global EPS growth as it expects a 5-10% contraction, compared to the consensus of +5%. The firm’s economists also see earnings falling by 20% in case of a hard landing scenario.

“Our models suggest that Citi’s top-down forecast of a 5-10% global EPS contraction in 2023 is largely priced into equity markets. An outcome nearer the average 31% downturn would imply another 20-30% off global equities,” the strategists said in a client note.

While Japan, Europe, and emerging markets have already priced in double-digit EPS drop, the U.S. is yet to price in such a scenario.

“Higher valuations mean that the US looks more vulnerable to significant earnings disappointment,” the strategists added.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.