By Sam Boughedda
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) is a catalyst-driven idea at Morgan Stanley, analysts said in a note Friday, based on Topline Ph3 data for the company's Alzheimer's drug Donanemab, which is expected in the second quarter.
"Eli Lilly plans to report topline 18-month donanemab Ph3 TRAILBLAZER-2 results in 2Q23. This will be the third Ph3 Alzheimer's readout following positive Biogen/Eisai lecanemab CLARITY AD results and negative Roche gantenerumab GRADUATE I/II results," explained analysts.
The analysts outlined six potential scenarios that could play out, including:
- Donanemab achieves better efficacy and a similar/lower rate of ARIA.
- Donanemab has better efficacy and a higher rate of ARIA.
- Donanemab performs at a comparable efficacy and similar/lower rate of ARIA.
- Donanemab achieves a comparable efficacy and a higher rate of ARIA.
- Donanemab has lower efficacy, but the results are statistically significant.
- or the Donanemab study fails.
Morgan Stanley's base case is scenario four which would see Donanemab have a comparable efficacy and higher rate of ARIA.
Overall, analysts said the firm is focused on cognitive improvement and rates of symptomatic ARIA as key criteria to compare Dmab to lecanemab.