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GLOBAL MARKETS-Dollar dives despite Bernanke; stocks, oil jump

Published 11/16/2009, 04:53 PM
Updated 11/16/2009, 04:57 PM
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* Wall St jumps over 1 pct, S&P closes above 1,100

* US crude oil gains more than 3 pct on dollar weakness

* Dollar at 15-month lows despite Bernanke's FX comments

* Gold hits record high above $1,140/oz (Updates to U.S. markets close)

By Walter Brandimarte

NEW YORK, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slid to 15-month lows on Monday, boosting world stocks and commodity prices, even after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank was monitoring the value of the greenback "closely."

U.S. crude oil futures jumped more than 3 percent as the weaker dollar prompted investors to buy higher-yielding assets such as commodities and stocks.

The greenback weakened on better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data, which stoked risk appetite, and after Asian and U.S. leaders failed to agree on exchange rates at a summit in Singapore. For details, see [ID:nAPEC].

The dollar briefly pared its losses after Bernanke said the Fed was closely monitoring its value as part of the bank's commitment to jobs growth and price stability. [ID:nN16514940]

But he also repeated that U.S. benchmark interest rates are likely to remain low for "an extended period," leading investors to eventually conclude that Fed monetary policy will remain loose for a long time, further weakening the greenback.

"Until the world sees actual action, the U.S. dollar will remain in secular decline," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak + Co in New York.

"Money will go where it's best treated, and monetary and fiscal policy in the U.S. is not currently treating the U.S. dollar well, relative to other countries," he added.

U.S. stocks jumped to fresh 13-month highs, with the Standard & Poor's 500 <.SPX> finishing above 1,100 for the first time since October 2008.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> ended up 136.49 points, or 1.33 percent, at 10,406.96, while the S&P 500 index gained 15.82 points, or 1.45 percent, to 1,109.30. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 29.97 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,197.85.

The MSCI all-country world stock index <.MIWD00000PUS> climbed 1.6 percent, while an emerging market stocks index <.MSCIEF> rallied 2.1 percent.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index of top shares <.FTEU3> closed up 1.5 percent at 13-month highs, also boosted by commodity-related stocks like miners Rio Tinto Plc and Xstrata Plc , which gained 5.5 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively.

"The market is up quite strong, with mining and commodity stocks leading the march. The market keeps shrugging off negative figures, and as long as it does so, it is likely to move higher," said Manoj Ladwa, senior trader at ETX Capital in London.

U.S. crude oil futures soared 3.3 percent to $78.90 per barrel, also reflecting improved investor optimism about the U.S. economy following October retail sales data.

In a report reflecting gradual improvement in consumer spending, the U.S. Commerce Department said total retail sales increased a better-than-expected 1.4 percent last month, the largest advance since August. [ID:nN16371323]

But the government also revised the September data to a 2.3 percent drop from a previously reported 1.5 percent decline.

Bond investors focused on the negative side of the retail sales report -- a more modest rise excluding auto purchases -- to explain their appetite for safer U.S. Treasuries.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note added 19/32 in price, bringing its yield down to 3.35 percent. The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was up 1-7/32, with the yield at 4.29 percent.

Appetite for Treasuries was also supported by Bernanke's repeated pledge to keep interest rates low.

DOLLAR WEAKENS DESPITE BERNANKE

The U.S. dollar continued its decline Monday, after drawing only brief support from Bernanke's comments.

The greenback fell 0.6 percent against a basket of major trading-partner currencies <.DXY>.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was down 0.75 percent at 89.04. The euro gained 0.41 percent to $1.4975. Sterling was up 0.8 percent to $1.6830 after trading as high as $1.6877 .

Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York, said Bernanke reminded investors that the Fed's mandate includes keeping the dollar strong.

"Still," he added, "Bernanke's remarks indicate that the Fed is unlikely to factor in the dollar's performance regarding the timing of policy decisions."

With U.S. interest rates expected to remain near zero for a prolonged period, appetite for emerging market assets and commodities should remain strong, analysts said.

Gold prices hit a fresh high above $1,140 an ounce on Monday. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index <.CRB> of 19 commodity futures gained 2.83 percent. (Additional reporting by Rodrigo Campos, Nick Olivari and Ellen Freilich in New York and Joanne Frearson in London; Editing by James Dalgleish)

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