Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) has surpassed pre-COVID benchmarks, according to a recent analysis by JP Morgan. October's GGR reached a pandemic-era high of MOP19.5 billion ($2.42 billion), marking a 400.2% yearly increase and hitting 105% of October 2019 figures, up from the 94% recovery rate in the third quarter of 2023.
The resurgence is seen across various segments: base mass demand is at 85-90%, premium mass at 110-120%, and VIP, mirroring the third quarter performance, at a steady 23-24%. The daily run-rate for October was $36.8 million, up from an average of MOP531 million ($33 million) in the previous quarter.
November's GGR is estimated to reach MOP16 billion, equivalent to 70% of pre-COVID levels. While this figure is not expected to 'wow anyone', JP Morgan predicts that the 'pace of recovery is expected to pick up' in December, with revenues forecasted to reach between MOP17.5 billion to MOP18 billion, or around 80% of 2019 levels.
This assessment contrasts with Deutsche Bank analysts' forecast of a significant downturn from pre-pandemic levels in Macau's gross gaming revenue for 2023, estimating it to be $22.81 billion (MOP182.86 billion). This aligns with Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng's projection of MOP170 billion to MOP180 billion by the close of the current year.
The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reports that this year has already seen MOP148.45 billion in revenue, 60% of the 2019 total. Deutsche Bank predicts casino earnings to reach $25.88 billion (MOP207.47 billion) in 2024, a figure that contradicts the government's forecast of MOP216 billion and signifies a 29% decrease from the total achieved in 2019.
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