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Currency Pair Overview:
Dollar Steals Ground On Fed’s Remarks
The overnight session was relatively active, with most of the trading concentrated in the Asian hours. The pound was the only pair that kept its momentum during European session, plunging another 100 pips after poor macroeconomic data hit the newswires at 04:30 EST.
The sell-off experienced throughout the overnight session, especially during Asia, was a reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. With the Fed deciding to exit the quantitative easing strategies – for some, much earlier than expected – the market has a clear sign that the economy is heading towards recovery, and apparently (as the near-term market moves see it) at a stronger pace than the Euro-area or the U.K. economies.
The euro (EUR/USD 1.4340) lost 200 pips at the beginning of the Asian session, reaching the lowest value in three months. The sell-off was triggered by the thought process that the U.S. economy is recovering much faster than expected, something that has forced the market to revalue the U.S. dollar. On the 4-hour chart, the euro is trading in a very steep downward channel, that has to now break some major support areas built over the last two years of trade.
The pound (GBP/USD 1.6105) was the weakest among the major pairs in Thursday pip count value, plunging 250 pips, even after the pair showed some bullish signs in Wednesday trade. In its downtrend, the pound broke below the 1.6200 area, which has held the market over the last month of trading. The pound’s downtrend was extended during the European session, when U.K. retail sales report showed a 0.3% drop in November, the first in six months.
TheLFB Trade Plan of the Day is one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, as well as S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.
The aussie (AUD/USD 0.8880) followed the market’s general momentum in Thursday trade, and dropped 125 pips. The aussie appears to be holding better than the other major pairs, mainly because it traded flat throughout the European session. On the daily chart, the aussie is approaching the 100-day moving average, which might provide some temporarily support.
The cad (USD/CAD 1.0720) moved higher by 130 pips overnight, after three days characterized by indecision. With the gains posted tonight, the cad broke above a trend-line that has been holding the market since early September. Usually, this is seen as a bullish sign, and points out that the current uptrend will probably continue for some time. However, the pair is now hitting huge price points that have been reversed heavily from in recent trade. At 07:00 EST, the Canadian CPI numbers are released which might influence the pair’s price action.
The swissy (USD/CHF 1.0500) advanced 500 pips over the last two weeks of trading, retracing almost every pip that the pair gained since September. On the higher time-frame charts, the swissy appears to be in a strong uptrend. However, the trading volumes are very thin lately, which might raise some questions for the pair being now able to add more on to the long side without reversing to support first.
The yen (USD/JPY 89.90) is struggling to find a direction to trade in. During the Asian session, the yen had an attempt to break above the 90.00 area, but the move was later retraced. The 90.00 area represents an important swing point for the pair. In this area, the yen met a resistance trend-line that has been holding since April 09. A break higher could shift the yen’s outlook to long.