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La Nina rattles farmers' nerves in Argentine Pampas

Published 12/16/2010, 08:57 AM
Updated 12/16/2010, 09:00 AM

* Dry weather caused by La Nina stunts corn, soy plants

* Farmers hope for rain before year-end as corn flowers

* Crop analysts, forecasters see yields suffering

By Nicolas Misculin

LUJAN, Argentina, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Soy and corn crops in Argentina's Pampas are starting to suffer from the effects of La Nina, and farmers say rains are badly needed before the end of the year to safeguard yields.

Rainfall has been below average for weeks in the farming heartland as a result of the weather anomaly, and many agricultural analysts expect production to fall in the South American country, a leading exporter of soy and corn.

"The situation is worrying, but it isn't desperate," said Javier Dominguez, who farms in Lujan district 70 km (43 miles) west of the capital Buenos Aires.

Global grains markets are keeping a close eye on the weather in Argentina as corn crops near the flowering stage when final yields start to be determined and when insufficient rainfall can do the most damage.

In Lujan, most soy and corn plants are still in good shape, although some are stunted and late-seeded soy has yet to germinate due to the lack of soil moisture.

"What farmers are worried about is the rains we get until the end of the month, so soy can develop enough to be able to defend itself from the dryness in January," Dominguez said.

"Some crops are going to be okay, but others are going to be very vulnerable," he added.

After several months of plentiful rains earlier this year, analysts forecast a record corn harvest and soy production similar to last season's record crop, but La Nina's arrival in November has stoked fears that production will suffer.

Stories on South America crop weather [ID:N27230400]

Soy output graphic: http://link.reuters.com/deg56p

Corn output graphic: http://r.reuters.com/puc64q

Memories of a severe drought in the 2008/09 season, which battered soy and corn production, are fresh in the minds of many growers.

Soybeans tend to cope with drought better than corn, which could be worse hit if the current dryness drags on into the yield-defining development stages.

"This La Nina is really hurting us from the point of view of corn. A lot of corn still hasn't been planted. Those that have been planted are bad, very few are in good condition," said Luis Marcenaro, president of the Producir XXI consulting firm, which works with farmers in Lujan.

"Now we're getting to Christmas and things are bad in terms of soil moisture in many places and the outlook for corn is very bad," he added.

FARMERS' NERVES

Last weekend, there were rains in Argentina's central farming region, but they only brought relief to a few of the areas worse hit by La Nina.

"The rains registered these days improved the condition of crops in some areas, but they weren't heavy enough. We still need more rainfall," said Liliana Nunez at Argentina's National Meteorological Service.

Some forecasters are predicting rains over the coming weeks, but that has not been enough to calm farmers' nerves. [ID:nN14274843]

"Corn plants have recovered a lot thanks to the rains we've had in the past week, but it's essential that we get some rain during the flowering period at the end of December," the Lujan farmer Dominguez said.

"If it doesn't rain, yields will be much lower-than-expected," he said.

Argentina's agriculture minister has estimated this season's soy production at 52 million tonnes, compared with 52.7 million in the previous harvest, with corn output seen rising to 26 million tonnes from 22.7 million previously.

La Nina is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Typically, it spawns drought in Brazil or Argentina, very dry weather in the U.S. Southwest reaching up into the grain belt, and excessive rain in Australia and Indonesia.

Its counterpart is El Nino which is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures along the Equator in the Pacific. Its effects likewise are the exact opposite, from drought in Australia and Indonesia to too much rain in Argentina and Brazil, and heavy rains in the U.S. Southwest into the grain belt, though it tends to hinder hurricanes in the Caribbean.

El Nino means little boy in Spanish. It was named after the Christ child by anchovy fisherman off the coast of Peru one Christmastime in the 19th century. (Additional reporting by Maximiliano Rizzi; Writing by Helen Popper; Editing by John Picinich) (helen.popper@thomsonreuters.com; +54 11 4318 0655; Reuters Messaging: helen.popper.reuters.com@reuters.net))

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