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Currency Pair Overview:
Market Looks For Fair Value Reads
Overall, the dollar index gained a few basis points during the overnight session, but the movement was slow as the market heads towards the BoE and the ECB interest rate decisions. In Wednesday trade, the major pairs managed to reach important price point levels, but the sell-off seen during the late U.S. equity session forced the major pairs lower once again. Over the last few days of trading, the market had a calendar that was loaded with important news reports, something that was reflected in the foreign exchange’s momentum and trading volumes.
Dollar Index Technical View: TheLFB Member Charts
4 Hour Chart: Mixed. Main price points: 74.95, and 76.82. Looking for: Move higher
The dollar index is trading lower at the moment, after the 76.82 top that was established on Tuesday, at the start of the European session. The current move down could be the red wave c) of a black wave ii flat pattern with the recent bottom around the 75.50 area, and the Fibonacci support levels. The bull trend confirmation comes with the break of the 76.82 area.
The alternative wave count may also still be very important, which is showing a structure of a clear zig-zag correction labeled as circled A, B and C. If this one is the correct count then the 76.82 highs must hold, while the market trades towards the yearly lows.
The euro (EUR/USD 1.4850) lost 40 pips during the Asian session, falling down to the neutral pivot point (1.4830). From there, the euro spent the rest of the overnight session moving up and down in a small range, but overall it failed to pull any important moves. On the daily chart, the euro is trading just below the 20-day moving average, which is in the 1.4860 area.
Ahead, investors prepare for the ECB interest rate decision, which usually sparks volatility in the EUR/USD exchange rate.
TheLFB Trade Plan of the Day is one of the six that are available to members on the major pairs each day, plus four Jpy based cross pairs, as well as S&P futures, oil, gold, and the dollar index.
The pound (GBP/USD 1.6505) used the overnight session to consolidate in the 1.6500 area, just above a resistance trend-line that has held the market for almost two weeks. At 07:00 EST, the market expects the BoE to increase the size of the asset buying program by £50 billion, up to £225 billion. According to the BoE voting committee, this would help the U.K. business cycle and anchor future inflationist expectations.
The aussie (AUD/USD 0.9075) is currently trading just below the resistance trend-line that has been holding the market for almost two weeks, in the 0.9100 area. The aussie managed to break briefly above this price point during the prior U.S. session, but the move was quickly retraced.
The cad (USD/CAD 1.0650) had a very small range during the Asian and the European sessions, of only 50 pips. This is the second consecutive day when the cad moved very little; in Wednesday trade, the cad had a range of only 85 pips. The cad is currently trading in the 1.0600 area, which has been a major swing point area over the last few months of trading.
The swissy (USD/CHF 1.0175), similar to the cad, had a very small range overnight, of less than 40 pips. However, the swissy has traded in a very volatile fashion lately, with the ATR indicator near two months highs, something that helped the pair push below all the important moving averages.
The yen (USD/JPY 90.25) had an attempt to break above the 91.00 area in Wednesday trade, but the move was retraced in quick time. Since then, the pair had been moving mostly lower, and for a few moments actually tested the 91.00 area during European hours.