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UPDATE 2-Czech c.bank meeting points to later rate rise

Published 02/04/2010, 10:33 AM
Updated 02/04/2010, 10:36 AM
EUR/CZK
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* Czech rates flat at record low, in line

* C.bank chief says rates seen rising in H2

* For forecasts click on [ID:nPRA004943]

* For HIGHLIGHTS, click on [ID:nLDE61320F]

(Adds c.bank comments, forecasts, updates crown)

By Jana Mlcochova

PRAGUE, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The Czech central bank left interest rates at record lows as expected on Thursday and signalled it would keep them there for several months before beginning to tighten policy in the second half of this year.

The bank's board voted 6-0 to keep the main two-week repo rate used to drain excess liquidity at 1 percent as the central European economy slowly recovers from a more than 4 percent economic slide last year.

All 21 analysts polled by Reuters had predicted the bank would stay put after a series of cuts that ended in December. Comments from the bank and its new forecasts also made a rise in rates before the middle of the year look unlikely.

Governor Zdenek Tuma said the bank saw rates on hold throughout the first half while the bank kept its forecast for growth steady -- contrary to expectations it was likely to raise it.

"As we perceive the development of the Czech economy in the coming two years, interest rates will go rather in the upward direction, probably... in the second half of the year," Tuma told a news conference following the decision.

The bank's staff forecast kept the 2010 growth outlook at 1.4 percent, and slightly cut the 2011 growth to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent.

Headline inflation will be at 2.0 percent in the first quarter next year, exactly in line with the bank's target, after a small temporary rise above that level in the second half of this year, the forecast said.

The crown was unchanged following the decision and Tuma's comments, trading at 26.12 per euro after 26.110 ahead of the decision.

RATE SHIFT

Traders said there was also no change in money market rates which had priced in a first hike for the end of June. Overall, markets price in three quarter point hikes by the end of the year, dealers said.

"Same growth and a stronger crown (in the central bank forecast) mean a shift in the first expected rate increase," said Martin Lobotka, an analyst at Ceska Sporitelna.

"We agree -- we paint a little stronger growth (a bit below 2 percent) and a stronger crown, and first hike at the end of the second quarter with the possibility of a delay until the third quarter."

The Czechs have the lowest rates in central Europe's emerging economies. Polish borrowing costs are at a record low 3.5 percent and should stay there for several months before rising in the second half.

Hungary's bank cut its key base rate by 25 basis points in January to 6.0 percent and is expected to continue easing to help the economy recover from a deep recession.

The European Central Bank also kept rates flat on Thursday at 1.0 percent, and the Bank of England left rates unchanged at 0.5 percent and ended its asset-buying programme.

(Additional reporting by Robert Mueller; editing by Patrick Graham)

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