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GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro hovers near 2-mth high; U.S. GDP eyed

Published 01/28/2011, 07:35 AM
Updated 01/28/2011, 07:39 AM
EUR/USD
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* Euro recovers to trade flat; stocks led down by miners

* Bunds up ahead of Italy auction; peripheral spreads widen

* U.S. Q4 GDP numbers eyed

By Simon Jessop

LONDON, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The euro's rally against the dollar paused near a two-month high on Friday and stocks were weaker as investors cashed in ahead of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP numbers.

Set to end the week in the black, the euro traded flat against the dollar by 1151 GMT, also giving back some of its gains against the yen following Thursday's sell-off after Standard & Poor's cut Japan's sovereign credit rating.

More broadly, the single currency remains supported by the European Central Bank's hawkish tone on interest rates, Tom Levinson, currency strategist at ING, said, with markets now pricing in more than one 25 basis point hike by year-end.

"Barring a nasty return of sovereign debt-related concern (still likely at some point), the likelihood of the ECB leading the Fed by some distance in its tightening cycle suggests EUR/USD can rise further," he added.

The dollar gave up early gains against a basket of major currencies to trade down 0.1 percent by 1152 GMT.

Stocks retraced some of their early declines and by 1152 GMT, the benchmark FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares was down 0.1 percent, led by mining stocks and remaining up 0.4 percent on the week.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a flat open on Wall Street, after the DJIA closed at a more than 2-1/2-year high on Thursday. "We expect equity markets to move into a consolidation phase in the next couple of months," said Tammo Greetfeld, equity strategist at UniCredit.

"People are waiting for the U.S. GDP figures, but it would only move the market in a big way if the figures significantly deviate from the consensus."

The slight weakness in European shares continued a broad-based sell-off in Asia overnight, with Japanese stocks hit by the previous day's S&P sovereign downgrade and other indices by inflation concerns.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei average ended down 1.1 percent, while the MSCI world equity index and Thomson Reuters global stock index were both trading down 0.2 percent by 1153 GMT.

Emerging market stocks fared worse, falling 0.6 percent.

The pace of economic recovery in the United States, efforts to stem the euro zone debt crisis and concerns about building inflationary pressures continue to guide markets across the region against the backdrop of the quarterly earnings season.

Fourth quarter U.S. GDP numbers, due out at 1330 GMT, are expected to show the world's biggest economy posted the best quarterly growth since the first quarter of last year, although unemployment is still seen stubbornly high.

Figures on Thursday showed positive U.S. housing and factory data but higher than expected jobless claims.

BUNDS UP, ITALY EYED

Bund futures rose in early trade, tracking U.S. Treasuries, and peripheral euro zone spreads widened, with traders eyeing an auction of Italian debt later in the session.

Rome plans to auction up to 6.75 billion euros of 2- and 10-year notes, and healthy bid interest would reiterate the market's willingness to accept more peripheral paper.

"Italian supply and U.S. GDP are the pick of the day today," a trader said. "Demand at the Italian auction should be reasonable. The market may get some concession built in but the bonds are pretty cheap in that part of the curve."

Peripheral spreads over bunds edged wider after a report Germany was determined to enforce Ireland's bailout terms and would not support an enlargement of the region's rescue fund. U.S. Treasuries had traded steady overnight in Asia, although both the U.S. and Japan were warned to tackle their debt burden by the International Monetary Fund.

Spot gold slumped to a four-month low as safe-haven flows waned in the face of the improving U.S. economic outlook, while benchmark U.S. crude oil traded up 0.2 percent but remains near a two-month low.

(Additional reporting by William James, Nia Williams, Anirban Nag, Naomi Tajitsu and Atul Prakash; editing by Toby Chopra, John Stonestreet)

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