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Investors Just Placed Their 2nd Biggest Ever Bet on Industrials

Published 10/09/2017, 07:42 AM
Updated 10/09/2017, 09:30 AM
© Bloomberg. A worker assembles components for a New Holland Ltd. round baler at the company's Haytools factory in New Holland, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Friday, April 8, 2016. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release industrial production figures on April 15.
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(Bloomberg) -- The “Trump trade’’ is back.

Investors poured $1.35 billion into the Industrial Select SPDR Fund last week, an allocation only surpassed by the record inflow notched in the aftermath of the U.S. election, and the largest commitment among U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds across asset classes.

The flood of interest underscores bullish bets that the upswing in global manufacturing will add fresh legs to the rally in industrial stocks, which are acutely sensitive to economic activity around the world.

The ETF, the biggest in its sector with $12.6 billion of assets, has posted a whopping 17 percent return this year, outperforming the S&P 500’s 14 percent gain.

As global reflation bets intensify, spurred by solid consumption and manufacturing data as well as hopes of U.S. tax reform, investor positioning towards the fund, known as XLI, remains bullish. Short interest as a percentage of shares outstanding is just 2.5 percent compared with a one-year average of 4 percent.

Traders are also betting tranquil market conditions will continue, with the fund’s 30-day implied volatility at 9.4 percent compared with a 12 percent average over the past year.

Last week’s inflow is even-more impressive considering the dollar’s advance over the past month, which tends to erode the value of profits generated overseas. The fund’s top holdings include firms with expansive global footprints, such as General Electric (NYSE:GE) Co., Boeing (NYSE:BA) Co. and Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT).

© Bloomberg. A worker assembles components for a New Holland Ltd. round baler at the company's Haytools factory in New Holland, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Friday, April 8, 2016. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release industrial production figures on April 15.

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