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INTERVIEW-Turkey to see IPOs worth total $15 bln-Garanti

Published 10/26/2010, 10:09 AM
Updated 10/26/2010, 10:12 AM
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* Sees 15 major Turkish IPOs in pipeline in 18 mths from Jan

* Garanti Securities handling 7-8 IPOs, eyes 30 pct floats

* IPOs disappointed this year as mispriced

(Adds detail, background)

By Evrim Ergin and Alexandra Hudson

ISTANBUL, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Turkey can expect around 15 major initial public offerings worth up to $15 billion in the 18 months starting from January 2011 if current market conditions prevail, the head of Garanti Securities told Reuters.

Metin Ar, chief executive of Garanti Bank's investment arm, said his firm was working on seven to eight IPOs, at least two of which were mandates from private equity, and aimed for stock offerings of at least 30 percent.

"If current market conditions continue Turkey will see new IPOs equalling the total value of all past IPOs. They will all be large businesses, worth $300 million to $3 billion. All would enter the Istanbul Stock Exchange top-thirty index," Ar said in an interview.

Turkish stocks have risen to record highs this year and have gained 35 percent since the start of 2010, far outperforming the emerging market benchmark equity index. Economic growth forecast at 6.8 percent this year, improving debt dynamics, low inflation and greater financial stability have made Turkey a firm favourite with investors.

This year's IPO market has disappointed high hopes, however, with only small issuers and firms -- even in such lucrative sectors as construction and energy generation -- forced to accept prices at the bottom end of their expectations.

Poor demand forced construction firm Akfen Holding to cut its IPO to just 7 percent of its share capital from an original 29.2 percent, and settle for the lowest offer price. It is up just 3 percent since it began trading on May 14.

Scant investor interest also forced Aksa Enerji to cut its IPO to 5.2 percent of capital from 13.5 percent. The stock has risen 6 percent since its debut on May 21.

Gold miner Koza Gold sold 30 percent of its capital for $436 million in February, attracting only the bottom price of the offer price range, although it has since risen in line with the Istanbul index, helped by higher gold prices.

"I don't believe we really saw IPOs this year," said Ar.

"The biggest-ever Turkish IPO was Turk Telekom 2-1/2 years ago worth $1.9 billion... there will be at least 10 to 15 IPOs of that magnitude in the 18-month period starting from next January. The value of these will be around $15 billion and will attract fresh money flow of $5-8 billion," he added.

Ar said Garanti Securities would aim for a float rate of around 30 percent as larger IPOs drew more foreign attention.

"Our approach to IPOs is a high float rate. We don't like small IPOs, the bigger the IPO the more attention it will attract from foreign investors."

Ar said this year's IPOs had been unsuccessful as they had been priced too high, but the market had learned its lessons.

Separately he said Garanti Securities would set up a joint venture with an American partner in June 2011 to invest in Turkey's small and mid-sized enterprise sector, likely making individual investments of around $5 million.

He added Garanti was working on a 1 billion Turkish lira ($704 million) corporate bond issue for a major international bank. (Editing by Michael Shields)

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