Airline group IAG saw its share price surge Wednesday, climbing more than 3% after Morgan Stanley double-upgraded the stock to Overweight from Underweight, raising the price target to €2.80 from €2.10.
The investment bank said that following its previous concerns, IAG's capacity growth now looks "increasingly supportive to pricing in both the near and medium term."
"Supportive fare data is showing up in advertised fares in North Atlantic, while advertised data across the rest of the total network is also outperforming," the bank wrote.
"Medium term, our new supply model points to constrained European supply in widebody markets, while [the] risk of destabilising growth at Heathrow is also limited," adds Morgan Stanley.
The bank's base case for IAG offers a 7% EBIT CAGR for FY24 to FY26, while they believe that if the company can reach the upper end of its margin target, this would represent a 14% CAGR.
"A turnaround of BA margins would be 90-130% of group EBIT growth out to 2026e, with the rest of the group (53% of FY23 EBIT) unlikely to see negative growth," they write.
Overall, Morgan Stanley states that while IAG's cheap valuation is not the exception within the sector, "the path to earnings upgrades looks clearest."