Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients this week that the artificial intelligence (AI) transition is on track, but the macro impact is still several years off.
The investment bank notes that investment in AI-related hardware has surged, with revenues of semiconductor manufacturers rising by over 50% since early 2023 and company-level revenue forecast revisions implying an incremental $250bn in annual AI hardware investment (1% of US GDP) through 2025.
However, actual adoption of AI "has only modestly increased so far," with less than 5% of companies reporting the use of generative AI in regular production.
"And while adoption is higher in industries that we estimate will benefit the most from AI—including computing and data infrastructure, information services, and motion picture and sound production—and is expected to rise going forward, adoption remains well below levels necessary to see large aggregate productivity gains," added Goldman Sachs.
As a result, the low adoption has limited the labor market impact, although the bank notes that preliminary evidence suggests AI is modestly raising labor demand while driving negligible job loss, "thereby creating a slightly positive impulse to net hiring."
"The sizable increase in AI-related investment and large productivity gains among early adopters adds to our confidence that generative AI poses meaningful economic upside, while the slow adoption pace suggests that sizable macroeconomic impacts are still several years off," the bank concluded.