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GLOBAL MARKETS-Metals up on weak dollar; oil eases on Libya peace prospects

Published 04/11/2011, 02:41 AM
Updated 04/11/2011, 02:44 AM
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* Reuters-Jefferies CRB index at 2-1/2 year high

* Euro rises on rate hike expectations

* Foreign inflows drive China stocks to 2011 highs

* Profit taking hits shares but move to riskier assets persists

By Saikat Chatterjee

HONG KONG, April 11 (Reuters) - Commodities prices rose across the board on Monday, pushing the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index to a fresh 2-1/2 year high on a weaker dollar and strong trade data from China, while expectations of a European Central Bank rate hike in July propped up the euro.

Copper prices inched higher, tin hit a record for a second straight session and lead scaled a three-year high on the London Metal Exchange, while Brent crude prices fell as prospects of a peace deal in Libya eased supply worries. See [ID:nL3E7FB06Q]

Shares of resources companies firmed along with metals, thought profit taking left Asia's major stock markets weaker. European shares were also expected to open slightly lower, with investors cautious ahead of the start of earnings eason.

Gold jumped to a life-time high for a fifth session, topping $1,476 as prospects of more declines in the U.S. dollar drove investors into the precious metal, with record exchange traded fund holdings helping silver to its highest in more than three decades.

"I think there is a good chance that gold could hit $1,500 an ounce within this quarter. And perhaps even higher if we see the weakness in the dollar persist and the Federal Reserve continues their relatively easy monetary policy," said Ong Yi Ling, investment analyst at Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"This week, perhaps, the focus could be on whether the Federal Reserve actually indicates to the market whether they will be exiting their loose monetary policy, and whether they display any hawkish signals."

Japanese stocks eased 0.5 percent after hitting a one-month high on Friday and after Citigroup slashed ratings on the country's major automakers to "sell", saying the impact of last month's massive earthquake had yet to be fully priced in.

Hong Kong fell 0.4 percent and South Korea ended 0.3 percent lower. Australia was the lone big bourse in the region to show gains, advancing 0.6 percent on strengh in mining and oil shares.

During the first week of April, flows into Asia-ex Japan equity funds hit a 20-week high as expectations grew that most Asian economies were able to keep inflationary pressures in check, data from fund-tracker EPFR Global showed. [ID:nN08230440]

FOREIGN INFLOWS BOOST CHINA STOCKS

Chinese shares traded at 2011 highs due to heavy inflows from foreign investors.

After a patchy start to the year, emerging markets have roared back in recent weeks as policy tightening in China showed that authorities in the world's biggest economies are getting more sanguine about growth prospects.

Three central banks in Asia are set to review monetary policy this week with Singapore likely to tighten policy further by recentering its currency band higher, which investors said would be another thumbs up for emerging market prospects.

"This means more capital inflows into emerging market assets and likely continued gains in their currencies," Credit Agricole strategists said in a daily note.

Expectations of strong corporate earnings reports in coming weeks may further boost gains.

HSBC strategists said the sharp rebound in China's March exports after February's slump suggested global growth prospects remained strong, despite the earthquake and tsunami in Japan.

LME copper gained 0.3 percent to $9,905 a tonne, extending gains from last week, after data showed Chinese copper imports rose 30 percent on the month. [ID:nL3E7FB09E]

In currency markets, the euro rose to 15-month highs around $1.4488 , paving the way for a test of $1.4582, the Jan 2010 high, as expectations grew that the ECB would follow up April's quarter point rate increase with another one in July. [ID:nSLA7FE7SI]

While the euro's gains have gathered steam from the March lows after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet first hinted at an April rate hike, the yen and the dollar have floundered as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates near zero for an extended period of time.

Brent crude futures fell 50 cents to near $126 a barrel, while U.S. light crude futures were little changed at $112.69 after briefly topping $113 in early trade.

Even if crude oil prices are levelling off for now, petrol prices could continue to rise as earlier increases work their way into the retail market, cutting into consumers' discretionary spending.

U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly, extending a three-week rising streak, as market players unwound safe-haven bids on the Libya news. Ten-year yields settled just below a seven-week high of 3.62 percent hit on Friday.

* For Reuters Global Investing Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting

* For the MacroScope Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope

* For Hedge Fund Blog, click on

http://blogs.reuters.com/hedgehub (Additional reporting by Ian Chua in SYDNEY; Editing by Ramya Venugopal)

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