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Natural gas futures - Weekly outlook: February 11 - 15

Published 02/10/2013, 10:43 AM
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Investing.com - Natural gas futures ended Friday’s session at a one-week low, as Thursday’s bearish inventory report and the milder outlook for several days next week weighed on near-term demand expectations for the heating fuel.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in March fell 0.6% Friday to settle at USD3.265 per million British thermal units by close of trade.

Earlier in the day, prices fell to a session low of USD3.256 per million British thermal units, the weakest level since January 31.

On the week, natural gas prices lost 1%, the third consecutive weekly decline.

Natural gas future prices plunged more than 4% on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that natural gas storage fell by 118 billion cubic feet last week, disappointing expectations for a drop of 132 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 94 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 165 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.684 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 15% above the five-year average for this time of year. Stocks were 12.2% above the five-year average in the preceding week.

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 128 billion cubic feet to 180 billion cubic feet.

Inventories fell by 113 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 154 billion cubic feet.

If withdrawals for the rest of winter season match the five-year average pace, inventories will end the heating season at 2.079 trillion cubic feet, nearly 20% above normal, but 16% below last year's end-winter record of 2.48 trillion cubic feet.

Meanwhile, natural gas traders continued to monitor weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks in an attempt to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on winter heating demand.

The Commodity Weather Group said Friday a massive snowstorm could enhance cold weather in the Northeast this weekend and delay warming trends early next week.

The private forecaster also noted a colder pattern shift in the six- to 10-day outlook.

Still, any upside will likely be capped as the coldest part of the winter has effectively passed and below-normal temperatures in February and March mean less than they do in January.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

The heating fuel has lost nearly 10.5% since rallying to two-month high of USD3.644 per million British thermal units on January 21, after updated weather forecast models pointed to mostly mild temperatures for mid-February.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, light sweet crude oil futures for March delivery settled at USD95.78 a barrel by close of trade on Friday, losing 1.85% on the week.

Meanwhile, heating oil for March delivery rallied 2.45% over the week to settle at USD3.239 per gallon by close of trade Friday, the strongest level since October 12.

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