* Japan stocks may outperform as yen risk wanes
* Market may be overestimating damage from nuclear accident
* Inflation could prompt retail investors to shift away from JGBs
By Hideyuki Sano
TOKYO, March 31 (Reuters) - Japanese shares could be on track to outperform other stocks in Asia despite a series of calamities that hit the country this month, helped by stimulative policies and as joint intervention from the G7 should weaken the yen, a fund manager from Tokio Marine Asset Management said.
While worries about unprecedented disruptions to supply chains and prolonged power shortages after a devastating earthquake and tsunami are warranted, policy support could help a recovery in share prices, the manager said.
"To be sure, there are many problems. But this (disaster) is also leaving Japan no choice but to pursue stimulative policies when the rest of the world is trying to tighten policy," Kenichi Hirayama told Reuters in an interview.
Japan stocks will likely repeat the recovery in global shares seen on efforts to turn around routs in markets after the 2008 financial crisis, he said.
Following the natural disasters on March 11 and subsequent radiation leaks from a crippled power plant, Japanese shares posted their largest two-day fall since 1987, ending their outperformance of most emerging markets since early November.
The Nikkei share average has recovered about half of its losses since then, but it is still down about 5 percent. The U.S. S&P index has climbed about 5 percent since the beginning of the year.
Hirayama noted that a flood of scary headlines on the Fukushima nuclear complex could be distorting investor judgement.
"The nuclear accident is clearly taking up a large part of our focus at the moment. We are getting bombarded with news on the plant every moment," he said.
"Ibaraki Prefecture (located just south of Fukusihima) updates radiation levels every 10 minutes. Under such conditions, we could be in a mental state where we overestimate the risk of the nuclear plant," he continued.
"The risk perceived by markets could be much greater than the real risk, which is something we as investors need to look at very carefully."
Noting that Japan stock ETFs in the United States saw a large inflow of funds after the quake, Hirayama said investors would likely be attracted to cheap valuations on Japanese stocks.
"People say Japanese manufacturers may not be able to supply products. But they may be overlooking the fact that the G7 currency intervention has reduced worries about the yen's strength, which has always been a drag on Japanese shares," Hirayama said.
"More investors may say 'hey, wait a minute' if the yen weakens further," said Hirayama, an avid researcher of financial history.
The yen hit a record high of 76.25 yen right after the earthquake, prompting the G7 to intervene jointly for the first time in more than a decade on March 18. Since then the yen has eased back to around 82.80 yen to the dollar .
The yen's slide could also help alleviate or even end the country's persistent deflation. A drop in Japan's consumer Price Index has been easing as commodity prices have soared.
BOND TROUBLE
That could spell trouble for Japanese government bonds, which have thrived under deflationary pressure, Hirayama said.
The Japanese 10-year yield has stayed below 2 percent for the past decade, falling to as low as 0.43 percent at one point.
But inflation is likely to trigger a shift to foreign bonds.
"People have kept money at home because they thought Japan would be in deflation. They have no incentives to do so if there's inflation. A lot of people think deflation will last but if that changes, more money will flow abroad," he said.
Rising bond yields could make Japan's debt financing difficult as the country, already saddled with debt as twice big as its economy, is expected to need to borrow more to fund its reconstruction efforts.
To avoid a collapse in the bond market, Japan's reconstruction should focus on creating new, environmentally-friendly cities as global demand for commodities and energy is seen rising, Hirayama said.
"If they can create value, the market will think that will lead to an increase in tax revenues even though it costs money now," he said.
(Reporting by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Joseph Radford)