Investing.com -- FranceAgriMer, the French farm office, on Wednesday maintained its monthly forecast for the country's soft wheat exports outside the European Union for the 2024/25 season. The projection remains at 3.5 million metric tons, a figure that marks a 66% reduction from the 2023/24 season and is the lowest in its records since 1996/97.
This decline is primarily due to a lack of demand from Algeria and China, two of France's main overseas markets in recent years. The decrease in sales to these countries, coupled with a poor French harvest and competition from less expensive Black Sea supplies, has led to this historic low in French soft wheat exports.
Minor adjustments were made to the rest of FranceAgriMer's soft wheat outlook. The expected French soft wheat shipments within the EU were slightly reduced to 6.14 million tons from 6.16 million tons projected in December. This figure is now 2.5% lower than the volume from the 2023/24 season.
Additionally, the office projected soft wheat stocks at the end of the season to be 2.90 million tons, slightly higher than the 2.87 million tons forecast last month, but still 9.1% below the previous season's level.
In the case of barley, FranceAgriMer significantly reduced its forecast for French exports outside the EU for the 2024/25 season to 1.9 million tons from 2.1 million in December, a 50% decrease from the 2023/24 level. This reduction is also a result of a slowdown in demand from China.
Barley stocks at the end of the season are now projected to be 1.61 million tons, a 25% increase from the 2023/24 season and a 16-year high. This increase is mainly due to the reduced forecast for non-EU exports.
For maize, the expected stocks for the 2024/25 season were increased to 2.80 million tons from 2.68 million, maintaining a 10-year peak. This 40% increase from the 2023/24 level is due to several factors, including reductions in intra-EU exports and domestic feed demand.
Lastly, FranceAgriMer sharply lowered its forecast for durum wheat stocks for the 2024/25 season to 106,000 tons from 143,000 tons. This reduction is attributed to quality issues in the French harvest, leading to some crop being used domestically for feed purposes.
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