(This Jan. 17 story has been refiled to fix a typo in paragraph 1)
By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) - Fitch's new head of sovereign ratings says the firm is likely to have a clearer picture of how Donald Trump’s second term as president could impact the U.S. credit rating by the time of its next rating review in the summer.
In his first interview since being appointed last year, James Longsdon said China and France’s downgrade-threatened ratings would also be a key focus, along with how Britain responds to its fiscal strains.
Fitch downgraded the U.S. in August 2023, becoming the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor’s to strip Washington of its triple-A rating.
The current AA+ score has a "stable outlook", meaning a downgrade, or an upgrade, is unlikely anytime soon.
But expectations that Trump will pursue an aggressive tax-cutting agenda and trigger a global trade war are creating plenty of angst about a $36 trillion U.S. debt pile already growing at $2 trillion a year.
"I think you would have some answers," Longsdon said referring to the U.S.'s next rating review which is due by the end of August.
"Certainly you would have had a chance to see how the legislative process is operating," he said, adding on tariffs: "Is it going to be very gradualist? Or is it going to be less gradualist? I just don't know."
Fitch currently assumes "dutiable rates" - tariffs on goods already liable to tariffs rather than all goods - will be hiked to 60% on China, 25% on Mexico and Canada and to 10% for the rest of the world.
Countries' ratings already factor those numbers in, meaning that only something more extreme, such as slapping tariffs on all imports, would cause sweeping changes.
China's is already on a downgrade warning though, meaning it will inevitably receive most attention.
"We'll look to see what comes out and what the reaction (to tariffs) is," Longsdon said, "particularly the sort of fiscal stimulus".
A positive for China was signs of "a few little green shoots in the property market" although more information on both tariffs and domestic issues was needed, he added.
FRANCE AND BRITAIN
France and Britain's AA- ratings are also in focus due to their respective home-grown issues.
France's outlook was lowered to "negative" in October, with a warning that its inability to rein in spending was rapidly pushing up its debt towards 118.5% of GDP.
Paris still needs to set a budget for this year, but this week lowered its target for spending cuts to 32 billion euros ($32.94 billion) from 40 billion in a bid to get opposition lawmakers onside.
"Could there be new elections in June, July?" due to all the difficulties, Longsdon said, acknowledging it was "difficult to say" when a decision on the rating might be made.
Britain looks to have a bit more "headroom" in comparison. It carries a "stable" outlook, although doubts have been growing amid signs the government will now miss its public finance targets.
Fitch, which has earned a reputation for being a first mover among the "big three", is next due to rate the UK on Feb. 28.
"What we will be looking at is whether they (the UK government) do end up missing the fiscal targets, and then if so, what will they do about it?" Longsdon said.
"That is important," he said. "From what we see and what we hear, there seems to be, as you would expect I suppose from a reasonably new (fiscal) rule, a commitment to making adjustments if necessary".
More broadly, he wants to maintain Fitch's knack of being first on big decisions. "If you're going to make a call that ends up being right, you want to be the first".
($1 = 0.9715 euros)