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UPDATE 1-Australia's AMP to bide time before AXA move-sources

Published 09/10/2010, 01:04 AM

* AMP doesn't see weak share price a hindrance-sources

* AMP can come back with bid over A$6 per AXA Shr-analyst

* NAB, AXA yet to terminate agreement; exclusivity lapses (Adds details, quotes, analyst comments)

SYDNEY, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Australian wealth manager AMP is likely to wait until rival National Australia Bank (NAB) is completely out of the running before making another attempt to take over AXA Asia Pacific , two sources said.

AMP, trumped last December by NAB's $12 billion offer for AXA Asia Pacific, would be able to structure a new proposal in less than a fortnight, the sources with direct knowledge said.

They added AMP considered its weak share price would not be a hindrance.

The sources declined to be identified as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

On Thursday, the Australian competition regulator blocked NAB's bid for AXA Asia Pacific for a second time, dashing the bank's efforts to cement its lead in the world's fourth-largest wealth management market. [ID:nSGE6870LI].

The top two wealth managers in the country, NAB and AMP, are vying for the sixth largest fund manager in what is considered the last major consolidation opportunity in the country's fast-growing $1.2 trillion wealth management sector.

An AMP spokeswoman reiterated the fund manager saw AXA Asia Pacific as a strategic interest and that it was too soon to talk about the next step.
For a NEWSMAKER on NAB CEO Clyne: [ID:nSGE68805Q]

For an ANALYSIS on AXA SA and Asia [ID:nLDE64R0MV]

Millionaires' growth graphic: managers: http://link.reuters.com/can42p

"NAB has risen from the dead earlier on this deal. There is no point taking a chance," one source said referring to NAB's persistence with the deal after the regulator blocked it for the first time in April.

NAB, AXA Asia Pacific and its parent France's AXA had an exclusive agreement for the deal that expired on Thursday. However, they are yet to terminate their agreement but the lapse of exclusivity means others could come in.

NAB could still go ahead with a deal and launch legal action in court though analysts give that option a slim chance.

"The deal could turn murky if NAB moves to the court. It is prudent to stay put. Especially after waiting so long," the first source said.

Analysts expect AMP to come back with a bid higher than its previous one but well short of NAB's option for A$6.43 in cash for each AXA Asia Pacific share..

"AMP has the capacity to raise its bid to above A$6.00 per share," Credit Suisse analyst Arjan van Veen said. AMP's last bid in current share price would be worth A$5.40 per AXA Asia Pacific share, he said.

Analysts say AMP could increase the share portion to 0.81 share for each AXA Asia Pacific share from 0.69 and still see earnings accretion in the first year.

They reason that AXA Asia Pacific's independent directors would not have a credible reason to reject a lower bid from AMP now NAB appears to have been effectively removed.

The competition regulator opposed NAB on the grounds that it would weaken competition in retail investment platforms -- an internet portal that binds wealth manager , products and clients.

As a result none of the other big banks, except Australia and New Zealand Banking Group , could make a play for AXA Asia. ANZ has said its interest lies in expanding in Asia.

Under the deal both NAB and AMP would retain the Australian and New Zealand Operations of AXA Asia and sell the Asian business back to French parent AXA , which is targeting Asia for growth. (Reporting by Narayanan Somasundaram; Editing by Ed Davies)

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