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FACTBOX-How metals performed in Q1, key themes for Q2

Published 03/31/2011, 01:27 PM
Updated 03/31/2011, 01:28 PM
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March 31 (Reuters) - Copper suffered its first quarterly loss since June in the first three months of this year as Chinese buying softened, while rising energy costs helped spur aluminium to its first quarterly gain in a year.

Following are statistics on base metals in the first quarter and key themes to look out for in the second quarter.

QUARTERLY PRICE CHANGES

* Average percentage moves of metals in Q4 2010, Q1 2011

Q4 2010 Q1 2011

Copper 20% -2%

Aluminium 5% 7%

Zinc 12% -3X

Lead 12% 5%

Tin 11% 18%

Nickel 6% 5X

PRICES

* Copper for three-months delivery on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,430 a tonne on Thursday, down from a record high of $10,190 a tonne hit in mid-February.

* Aluminium closed at $2,645 a tonne, within reach of $2,656, its highest level since September 2008.

* Zinc was at $2,362 a tonne.

* Battery material lead was at $2,695 a tonne.

* Tin was at $31,800 a tonne, about $1,000 below a record peak of 32,799 reached in mid-February.

* Nickel closed at $26,095 a tonne.

GRAPHICS

* KEY Q2 THEMES FOR METALS:

WHEN WILL CHINA BE BACK FOR MORE?

* This is the big question playing on the minds of metals-market participants. The second-quarter is traditionally strong for demand so hopes are still high for Chinese buyers to return to the market, albeit later than expected.

Nonetheless, the market remains nervy as the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals has held back from purchases so far this year, deterred by high prices.

* Investors will stay focused on monetary policy in China, to ascertain whether the country's stance of curbing inflation through monetary tightening could hurt metals demand. * Chinese trade data is due on April 10, while economic growth and CPI figures are due on April 15.

WILL INVENTORIES PLOUGH HIGHER?

* Aluminium stocks hover near record highs. Last registered at 4,595,375 tonnes, stocks have risen 5.6 percent so far this year to stand within a whisker of a record 4,640,750 tonnes hit on Jan. 20 2010.

* Copper stocks, last at 439,850 tonnes, have been on the rise since December and the market will keep close tabs on any changes this trend.

* Stocks of zinc and tin have also been on the rise this year, whereas nickel inventories have declined. Lead stocks climbed steeply until mid-February but have since reversed this trend.

ECONOMIC DATA

* Investors will be keeping a keen eye on surveys of purchasing managers in manufacturing in China, Europe and the United States. They will look for clues on the extent to which the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan, a major link in the global manufacturing supply chain, may have impacted manufacturing in other economies.

On Friday, the new quarter will kick off with European PMI figures, U.S. ISM manufacturing data and U.S. non-farm payrolls.

U.S. data has been mixed this year.

MIDDLE EAST & LIBYA, OIL

* Turmoil in the Middle East and Libya drove Brent crude oil prices to a 2-1/2 year high near $120 a barrel in February, and prices were last near $117 a barrel.

Growing unrest in the region looks set to keep alive investors' concerns that high oil prices could hamper global economic growth, and in turn metals demand, by stoking inflation.

(Compiled by Rebekah Curtis)

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