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European shares hit highs on Jackson Hole optimism

Published 08/24/2011, 12:51 PM
Updated 08/24/2011, 01:00 PM
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* FTSEurofirst 300 index closes 1.4 percent higher

* Technical analysts say rally does not look convincing

* Autos race higher on bargain hunting, demand hopes

By Atul Prakash

LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - European shares hit a one-week closing high on Wednesday on better-than-expected U.S. durable goods data and on hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could signal on Friday further stimulus measures to help the economic recovery.

Auto shares, which fell in the previous five weeks, were the top gainers on bargain hunting and on hopes that global demand for vehicles will revive. The sector index rose 4.7 percent, BMW gained 4.3 percent, while Volkswagen rose 4.1 percent.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares gained for a third straight day and ended 1.4 percent stronger at 936.79 points, the highest close since Aug. 17. But it is still down 13.4 percent this month and has fallen 16.5 percent in 2011 on concerns about the pace of global economic recovery.

However, sentiment improved on expectations that Bernanke's speech at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole might be a repeat of his performance last year when he hinted the central bank would act if conditions deteriorated. Two months later, the Fed began pumping $600 billion into the financial system through direct purchases of U.S. Treasury debt.

"The market has rallied on Jackson Hole optimism. We hope that Bernanke pulls a rabbit out of his hat again, and that could be buying lower quality assets with the Fed's balance sheet," said Richard Greenwood, fund manager at Bedlam Asset Management, which manages about $700 million.

"He has to be creative as he hasn't got much options left," Greenwood said. "It's just a relief rally and it is sustainable only when data and sentiment get better."

The market also got a boost after figures showed new orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in July on strong demand for transportation equipment. The figures gave some relief to investors who saw German business morale posting its steepest drop this month since the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse in late 2008.

A London-based analyst said that given the scale and pace of the recent stock market falls, some traders were looking to fill short positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meet, although it did not necessarily indicate confidence in the longer-term outlook.

Technical analysts were also sceptical about the sustainability of the rally in stocks, which fell to two-year lows this month on growing fears the U.S. economy was heading for a recession and politicians still didn't have a credible plan to contain the euro zone debt crisis from spreading.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The euro zone's blue chip Euro STOXX 50 index rose for a third straight session and was up 1.8 percent at 2,238.70 point. Chartists said it faced resistance at 2,246, its 23.6 percent retracement from a fall between July 22 and Aug. 11.

"Technically, the rebound does not look convincing as the price stays below 2,246. It might be considered as a technical correction before the markets get more clues on Friday," said Dmytro Bondar, technical analyst at RBS.

"Momentum tools are mixed with the MACD oscillator having formed a positive crossover, a bullish signal, but slow stochastic being bearish. Until some clarity appears on Friday, the equity markets are likely to remain in a range."

Analysts and fund managers said that equity valuations, which were relatively cheaper against their historical levels following the recent sell-off, alone were not enough to induce investors to buy shares in a big way and the market needed other supports such as positive macroeconomic data.

"Valuations haven't fallen as much as the stock market has fallen over the past few weeks because the outlook for earnings has also deteriorated. It's very difficult to say that the market as a whole is cheap," Greenwood said.

According to Thomson Reuters Datastream, the STOXX Europe 600 index carried a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9.0, against a 10-year average of 13.3.

Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 rose 1.5 percent, Germany's DAX gained 2.7 percent and France's CAC 40 climbed 1.8 percent.

However, Greece's share benchmark fell 2 percent after hitting its lowest level in nearly 15 years, as an escalating row over demands by Finland for collateral on Greek loans was seen complicating implementation of its rescue package.

Greek banks fell 2.4 percent, while Greek two-year government bond yields rose to their highest since the launch of the euro in 1999.

Earnings results brought misery for some companies. Heineken , down 6.5 percent, sent a shiver through Europe's brewing industry with a warning that weak consumer sentiment and a damp summer would wipe out profit growth this year. Its first-half profit fell short of expectations.

Weakness in Heineken had an impact on the European food and beverages index , which fell 0.2 percent and featured as the only sector closing in negative territory. (Additional reporting by Simon Jessop; Editing by Jon Loades-Carter) ============================================================ For rolling updates on what is moving European shares please click on ============================================================ For pan-Europeanmarket data and news, click on codes in brackets: European Equities speed guide................... FTSEurofirst 300 index.............................. STOXX Europe index.................................. Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurofirst 300 sectors................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................

Main stock markets: Dow Jones............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ FTSE 100............... London report........... Xetra DAX............. CAC-40............... World Indices.....................................<0#.INDEX> Reuters survey of world bourse outlook......... Western European IPO diary......................... European Asset Allocation........................ Reuters News at a Glance: Equities................. Main currency report:.................................

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