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Forex - USD/CHF weekly outlook: June 11 - 15

Published 06/10/2012, 06:27 AM
USD/CHF
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar rose to a three-day high against the Swiss franc on Friday, paring some of the week’s losses as the downgrade of Spain’s credit rating and sustained concerns over the handling of the debt crisis in the euro zone weighed on market sentiment.

USD/CHF hit 0.9512 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 23; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9592 by close of trade on Friday, falling 0.61% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9512, Thursday’s low and resistance at 0.9675, the high of June 5.

Rating’s agency Fitch cut Spain's credit rating by three notches to triple-B on Friday, and indicated that further cuts could still be made as the country struggles to stabilize its fragile banking system.

The downgrade came as senior European Union officials prepared to discuss options for financial aid to Madrid in a telephone conference on Saturday morning.

Traders also remained cautious after China announced a surprise interest rate cut on Thursday, which some market participants took as a sign that the world’s second largest economy may be slowing more than previously thought.

The greenback eased off a two-week low against the Swissie on Thursday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that the U.S. economy faced “significant risks” arising from the crisis in Europe, but refrained from indicating that the central bank was prepared to implement any fresh stimulus measures.

In testimony to a congressional committee in Washington, Bernanke said that the Fed remained "prepared to take action" to protect the U.S. economy and financial system if stresses on the financial system escalate, but stopped short of indicating what these actions might be.

In Switzerland, official data showed on Thursday that consumer price inflation was flat in May, confounding expectations for a 0.1% rise and following a 0.1% increase the previous month.

The data came after the Swiss National Bank said that the country’s foreign currency reserves rose to CHF303.8 billion in May from CHF237.6 billion the previous month.

In the week ahead, markets will be keeping a close eye on developments in Spain, as Madrid begins to hammer out the details of a rescue package for its banks, while uncertainty over the outcome of Greek elections on June 17 is likely to weigh.

Investors will also be eyeing Switzerland’s rate decision, as well as U.S. retail sales data, as investors try to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on that day.

Tuesday, June 12

Switzerland is to release government forecasts for economic growth, an important indication of the economic outlook.

The U.S. is to publish official data on import prices as well as a government report on the federal budget balance.

Wednesday, June 13

Switzerland is to produce official data on producer price inflation, a key indicator of consumer inflation.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. The country is also to produce data on producer price inflation, business inventories and crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, June 14

The Swiss National Bank is to announce its Libor rate. The announcement is to be accompanied by the central bank’s monetary policy statement and followed by a press conference. The SNB is also to publish its financial stability report.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to produce official data on consumer price inflation and the country’s current account, as well as a government report on initial unemployment claims.

Friday, June 15

The U.S. is to round up the week with official data on manufacturing activity in the New York area, the capacity utilization rate and industrial production. The country is also to release preliminary data by the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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