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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks rise to highest since Nov

Published 04/04/2011, 05:29 PM
Updated 04/04/2011, 05:32 PM
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* Brazilian stocks get boost from Fitch upgrade

* Regional indices near overbought RSI levels

* Brazil Bovespa up 0.63 pct, Mexico IPC up 0.34 pct

By Silvio Cascione and Luciana Lopez

SAO PAULO, April 4 (Reuters) - Latin American stocks rose to their highest since late last year on Monday, with Brazilian stocks lifted after ratings agency Fitch upgraded the country's debt, but some signs suggested stocks could pull back after a strong rally.

The MSCI Latin American stocks index <.MILA00000PUS> added 0.43 percent to close at its highest since November 2010 after five sessions of gains.

But the index's relative strength index hit a level that suggested it was overbought. The RSI is used in technical analysis to gauge an asset's momentum.

Brazil earned its highest-ever credit rating on Monday, as Fitch said the South American powerhouse was set for strong economic growth and for less public spending. [ID:nN04265221]

But analysts said the impact of this upgrade - and others that could follow from different agencies - was largely priced in by the market. Credit rating agencies awarded investment grades to Brazil in 2008 and 2009.

"These rating increases, hereafter, tend to have less and less of an impact on the market," said Roberto Padovani, chief strategist at WestLB Brazil.

Still, analysts said Brazil's improving credit rating will help companies lower their borrowing costs in the coming years.

Brazil's benchmark Bovespa index <.BVSP> rose 0.63 percent to its highest since Jan. 19. The index has gained nearly 4 percent since last Monday and it broke a key resistance level around 68,000 points last Wednesday.

The lack of important local or global data due this week could lead markets to move sideways, analysts said.

Technical analysts said the Bovespa would hit more strong resistance around 70,500 or 71,000, or between 1 and 2 percent higher from Monday's close.

Shares in mining giant Vale rose 2.36 percent. The stock has been volatile in recent sessions on speculation about an executive shake-up. Vale, the world's largest iron ore miner, said its holding company would meet to select a replacement for Acting Chief Executive Roger Agnelli on April 7. [ID:nN31285411]

Mexico's IPC stock index <.MXX> added 0.34 percent and also closed at a more than two-month high. The IPC's relative strength index came its closest to generating an overbought signal since early January.

Industrial conglomerate Alfa rose 3.07 percent while broadcaster Grupo Televisa rose 0.96 percent.

Oil prices rose to their highest since 2008 on Monday amid unrest in oil producing nation's. [ID:nL3E7F40I5]

Carlos Alonso, head of stock trading at brokerage Interacciones, said oil prices could again start to weigh on global growth.

"The longer oil prices stay up, the less growth we will see in 2011," he said. "We have just had a big rally for all the negative forces that could be affecting markets, and we are recommending taking advantage of these levels to get some liquidity."

Traders pointed to weak volume as a sign that investors had little conviction that stocks would gain much more ground in the coming sessions.

Chile's IPSA index <.IPSA> rose 0.55 percent for a fourth day of gains as industrial conglomerate Copec added 1.72 percent.

However, the advance brought the IPSA's 14-day RSI near overbought levels for the first time since November. (Additional reporting by Michael O'Boyle in Mexico City; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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