Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q3 deliveries and production figures could miss Street expectations, primarily due to global plant downtime for upgrades and Project Highland, according to Deutsche Bank analysts.
Analysts lowered Q3 delivery estimates to 440,000 units, a 6% sequential decrease from the previous estimate of 455,000 units.
“Looking at 2024, however, we see considerable downside risk to earnings expectations, due to much lower volume outlook than the market believes,” analysts wrote in a client note.
Deutsche sees Tesla guiding to ~2.1 million deliveries next year, which is well below the market consensus for 2.3 million deliveries.
“On the bright side, with the company not trying to push as much volume, there could potentially be less pricing pressure next year,” the analysts added.
They also cut Q3 revenue estimates by roughly $800 million to $23.3 billion. EPS estimates are down to $0.71 from the prior $0.87. Analysts are looking for Tesla to report EPS of $0.80 on revenue of $25 billion.
“For the year, we expect Tesla to reiterate its 1.8m deliveries target, suggesting sequentially improving production run-rate as well as deliveries, likely with better cost efficiencies attached and higher margins in Q4 vs. Q3. Together with first Cybertrucks still scheduled to be delivered in Q4, we believe Tesla's message could be optimistic about next quarter,” analysts added.
Long-term they remain bullish on Tesla mostly due to the company’s next-gen platform.
The new price target on TSLA stock is $285 per share, down from the prior $300 on the Buy-rated TSLA stock.
Tesla shares closed at $244.14 yesterday.