- The Federal Reserve aims to keep interest rates at a "neutral" rate--the point at which interest rates neither hinders or drives the economy.
- Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan estimates the long-run neutral nominal rate to be 2.50%-2.75%, meaning it would take another three or four 25-basis point rate hikes to bring the fed funds rate to that point, he writes in an essay on monetary policy.
- "At that point, I would be inclined to step back and assess the outlook for the economy and look at a range of other factors—including the levels and shape of the Treasury yield curve—before deciding what further actions, if any, might be appropriate," he writes.
- The Dallas Fed sees U.S. economic growth moderating in 2019 and 2020 from about 3% U.S. GDP growth in 2018. Kaplan sees real GDP growth of 1.75%-2% by 2020 or 2021.
- The next time Kaplan votes on monetary policy is 2020.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield +2.9 basis points to 2.846%; (TLT -0.5%), (TBT +0.8%).
- U.S. dollar ETFs: UUP, UDN, USDU
- Now read: Spreading Spreads (And JPY)
Original article