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Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 18-22

Published 04/17/2011, 09:58 AM
GBP/USD
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Investing.com – Last week saw the pound retreat from a 15-month high against the U.S. dollar, after soft U.K. inflation figures dampened expectations for a near-term rate hike by the Bank of England.

GBP/USD hit 1.6425 on Monday, the pair’s highest since January 19, 2010; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6323 by close of trade on Friday, shedding 0.31% over the week.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6226, last Tuesday’s low and a one-week low and resistance at 1.6425, Monday’s high and a 15-month high.

On Tuesday, a U.K. government report showed that consumer price inflation rose by 4.0% in March, the lowest annual rate of increase since January and the first fall in the CPI rate since July last year. Analysts had expected the annual rate to hold steady at 4.4%, a 28-month high reached in February.

Also Tuesday, U.K. industry data showed that retail sales fell at their fastest annual pace in nearly six years and house prices slipped in March.

The pound rebounded on Thursday after government data showing that U.S. initial jobless claims rose to a two-month high the previous week.

But the pound weakened against the dollar on Friday, erasing gains which came after BoE policymaker Andrew Sentance said he was concerned sterling had weakened more than was needed and that inflation could exceed 5%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking towards U.S. government data on building permits and home sales, as well as U.K. data on retail sales to gauge the strength of the economic recovery.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 18


In the U.K., property website Rightmove is to publish a report on house price inflation, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health.

Also Monday, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher is due to speak at two events in Atlanta.

Tuesday, April 19

The U.S. is to publish government data on building permits, an excellent gauge of future construction activity as well as a report on housing starts, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, April 20

In the U.K., the BoE is to publish the minutes of its April policy meeting. The minutes give investors an in-depth insight into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to publish industry data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of economic health. The country is also to publish a government report on crude oil stockpiles.

Thursday, April 21

The U.K. is to produce official data on retail sales, a primary gauge of consumer spending. The country is also to publish government data on public sector borrowing as well as preliminary data on mortgage approvals.

The U.S. is to publish official data on initial jobless claims, the nation’s earliest employment data. The country is also to publish data on house prices and natural gas stockpiles. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is to publish an index of manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Friday, April 22


Markets in the U.K., euro zone, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and New Zealand will be closed for Good Friday.


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