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Cocoa back above $10,000/ton as chocolate industry supply outlook worsens

Published 06/13/2024, 02:37 PM
Updated 06/13/2024, 05:02 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A farmers holds cocoa beans while he is drying them at a village in Sinfra, Ivory Coast April 29, 2023. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo
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By Maytaal Angel

LONDON (Reuters) -Cocoa prices rose back above $10,000 per metric ton on Thursday, heading toward all-time highs, as the chocolate industry's supply crisis worsened after top producer Ivory Coast halted cocoa exports for June and forward sales for next season.

That followed reports on Wednesday that Ghana, the world's second largest producer of the chocolate ingredient, is looking to delay delivery of up to 350,000 tons of beans to next season due to poor crops.

Cocoa has more than doubled in price this year, and is now costlier than many metals. September New York cocoa futures on ICE exchange hit a six-week peak of $10,308 a ton, and settled up 2.6% to $10,110 a ton.

"Its a massive problem, Ivory Coast and Ghana are 30% below last year in terms of crop size. No one knows how to make up for the missing cocoa, there isn't enough near-term beans to supply the market," said a dealer.

Sources told Reuters earlier that Ivory Coast has suspended the purchase and export of cocoa for June in a bid to retain sufficient stock for local processors who have run out of beans to keep their factories running.

They added the ban might be extended beyond June and would cover multinationals such as Cargill, Barry Callebaut, CEMOI and Olam, meaning European factories waiting for Ivorian beans will have to turn to other sources.

The world's largest cocoa producer has meanwhile also halted forward sales of next season's crop at 940,000 metric tons, some 35% less than a year ago, as it awaits more clarity on production.

The current season's shortfall meant Ivory Coast oversold the 2023/24 October to March main crop, forcing it to roll contracts for 150,000 tons of beans into the current mid-crop.

Ghana is also struggling with forward sales as it looks to roll forward 350,000 tons of beans due to an uncertain crop outlook, with sources telling Reuters it has sold forward just 100,000 tons for 2024/25.

The country regularly sells one year forward about 80% of its crop, which usually totals 750,000-850,000 tons. Its current crop is not expected to exceed 500,000 tons and traders fear it might not rebound significantly next season.

Fresh production from countries outside of Africa such as Brazil and Ecuador will take a couple of years to come to the market, said StoneX analyst Vladimir Zientek.

"The market is very short on beans, and it will not get better," he said.

September London cocoa ​​settled up 3.7% at 8,222 a ton.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A farmers holds cocoa beans while he is drying them at a village in Sinfra, Ivory Coast April 29, 2023. REUTERS/Luc Gnago/File Photo

In other soft commodities, July raw sugar rose 2.6% to 19.59 cents per pound, while August white sugar gained 2.3% to $567.40 a ton.

September robusta coffee settled up $7, or 0.2%, at $4,093 a ton, while September arabica coffee rose 0.6%, to $2.2625 per pound.

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