* "Outside date" of Chinese bid for Verenex is Monday
* Verenex still seeking Libyan consent for sale to China
* Investors expect China bid to expire or given more time
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Canada's Verenex Energy Inc. is running short of time to get Libyan approval for its $460 million sale to China, making some investors pessimistic that the deal will go ahead.
Verenex, a small Canadian oil company working in Libya, needs Libyan consent by Aug. 24 for the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) deal to go ahead. While Libya has said it will pre-empt the bid, it has not made a formal offer and has not given consent to the Chinese deal.
Investors in Verenex were prepared for the possibly of the deal collapsing, but some said they still expected Verenex and the Chinese to continue to seek Libyan approval for the C$10-a-share sale.
"I think it's done, it's over," said one holder of Verenex shares who declined to be identified. "The Libyans have all the leverage -- they can do what they want and they are going to."
Libya, home to Africa's largest oil reserves, has attracted interest from oil firms since most international sanctions were lifted in 2004. But Verenex's problem highlights that emerging markets are not for the risk averse.
A second Verenex investor was more hopeful, saying there was a chance that the outside date of the CNPC deal could be moved beyond Aug. 24 as talks were making progress, giving more time to obtain Libyan consent.
"The negotiations are pretty active," the investor said. "It's possible they will extend the outside date if there is progress being made."
Verenex shares, which traded near C$10 in March, were down more than 3 percent at 1352 GMT on Friday at C$7.16. The stock fell 23 percent on June 22 when the company said the lack of Libyan approval for the CNPC bid could scupper the deal.
ARBITRATION?
A third Verenex investor also thought the deadline for the deal would be extended.
"My guess is they will extend it," the investor said. "The Chinese want to be there and the company wants to sell. It would be a gift to Libya to call the whole thing off."
Verenex said on Aug. 10 it was still seeking Libyan consent for the company's sale to CNPC, but the company has put together a draft arbitration claim for use as a last resort.
"Clearly neither party wants to go the legal route on this thing and we've trying to figure out the best way to come up with an amicable solution," Verenex CEO Jim McFarland told Reuters in July.
He could not be reached for comment by Reuters on Thursday.
Shokri Ghanem, the chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC), has repeatedly said the NOC will match the CNPC offer. He declined to comment on Verenex when contacted by Reuters on Thursday.
With the assumption of debt, the offer from CNPC was worth C$499 million (equal to $460 million on Friday), the companies said when it was announced on Feb. 26. (Editing by Anthony Barker)