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DEALTALK-Equinox could itself turn prey after hostile bid for Lundin

Published 03/01/2011, 03:54 AM
Updated 03/01/2011, 03:56 AM
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* Equinox seen as attractive buy on Zambian mine holding, low shr price

* Big miners seen possible buyers, though jury out if Rio or BHP will bid

* Equinox shares in Australia slide 6.4 pct

(For more Reuters DEALTALKS, click )

By Sonali Paul

MELBOURNE, March 1 (Reuters) - Will the hunter become the hunted?

Equinox Minerals' C$4.8 billion ($5 billion) hostile bid for fellow copper miner Lundin Mining is sparking talk that it could be putting itself into play, as hot copper prices turn pure-play copper miners into the latest juicy targets in the mining sector.

Equinox's Lumwana mine in Zambia and its expansion into Saudi Arabia with the recent $1.23 billion takeover of Citadel Resources make it an attractive target, with some analysts saying its share price does not reflect the growth prospects it has in Saudi Arabia.

With costs for building new mines on the rise, acquisitions are a cheaper and quicker way to tap into the market, and Equinox is seen as ripe for the picking.

"Without question, if you want scale in the industry, Equinox does stand out as a company with high quality assets, an open register and a significant growth platform," said Ben Lyons, an analyst at ATI Asset Management.

"So it certainly would be attractive to the usual suspects out there," he said, pointing to Brazil's Vale , Xstrata , Antofagasta , possibly Russia's Norilsk Nickel and Chinese companies. He declined to say whether ATI still owns shares in Equinox.

Some analysts speculated that Equinox may be attractive to Rio Tinto , after it flagged interest last month in expanding into Africa's copper belt. But some others doubted Rio, or BHP , would make a move.

"The issue with Equinox is that their assets are quite good and long-life, but they're not tier 1. The grades are quite low," said Peter Chilton, an analyst at Constellation Capital Management.

"I can't imagine Rio or BHP doing anything there, because it's not tier 1. Xstrata could," he said.

Vale is seen as less likely to stalk Equinox, given its focus on iron ore and coal and pressure to invest at home.

INFERIOR OFFER?

Equinox pounced on Lundin two weeks before shareholders in Lundin and Inmet Mining were due to vote on a proposed tie-up which involves no premium, compared to the 26 percent premium offered by Equinox.

While Lundin told shareholders to take no action as it came up with a response, its chief executive, Phil Wright, made his position clear, calling the offer inferior to the planned merger with Inmet.

Lundin's shares soared 19 percent to C$7.65, but held about 6 percent below the offer of $8.10 share, reflecting investors' doubts the deal would go ahead as it is and doubts that Inmet would be able to top Equinox's offer for Lundin.

Equinox's Toronto-listed shares slid 8.6 percent, while the stock fell 6.4 percent in Australia, with some analysts questioning Equinox's view that the deal would boost its earnings in the first year.

"One may have questions over the quality of the asset base that will be acquired and the price Equinox is paying for them," said Lyons of ATI Asset.

Lundin's 24 percent stake in the Tenke project in the Democratic Republic of Congo is seen as the big prize, which would boost Equinox's holdings in Africa's copper belt.

Lundin's senior partner in the coveted Tenke mine, Freeport-McMoRan , could thwart Equinox, but an analyst said Freeport has played down the prospect of bidding for its 24 percent partner in the mine. (Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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