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Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: April 22 - 26

Published 04/21/2013, 09:04 AM
AUD/USD
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Investing.com - The Australian dollar ended Friday’s session close to a five-week low against its U.S. counterpart, amid concerns over the outlook for global economic growth and after the International Monetary Fund said the Aussie is overvalued.

AUD/USD hit 1.0268 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since March 12; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0275 by close of trade, losing 2.17% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0203, the low from March 11 and resistance at 1.0357, Friday’s high.

Worries over the global economy intensified earlier in the week after the International Monetary Fund cut its 2013 forecast for global growth to 3.3%, down from its January projection of 3.5%.

The growth projection for China was trimmed to 8% from 8.2%, while the growth outlook for the U.S. was lowered to 1.9% from 2%.

The Aussie came under further selling pressure after Min Zhu, deputy managing director of the IMF, said on Thursday that the Aussie is overvalued by 10% from "a medium-term point of view."

The comments came after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest policy meeting showed there is still room to cut rates.

In the minutes of the RBA's April 2 policy meeting, policymakers reiterated that the inflation outlook gives the bank room to reduce borrowing costs to a record, even as earlier cuts still boost demand.

In the week ahead, investors will be awaiting Friday’s U.S. data on first quarter growth amid lingering concerns that the U.S. economic recovery is losing momentum.

Market players will also be looking ahead to a report on consumer price inflation from Australia.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 22

The U.S. is to release private sector data on existing home sales, a leading indicator of demand in the housing market.

Tuesday, April 23

China is to publish its HSBC manufacturing index, a leading economic indicator. China is Australia's biggest export partner.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to produce official data on new home sales as well as preliminary data on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, April 24

Australia is to publish official data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.

The U.S. is to release government data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as data on crude oil inventories.

Thursday, April 25

Markets in Australia are to remain closed for a national holiday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. is to produce the weekly government report on initial jobless claims later in the trading day.

Friday, April 26

The U.S. is to round up the week with preliminary data on first quarter growth, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading measure of the economy’s health.

The U.S. is also to release revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

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