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FOREX-Yen recoups some losses, euro faces profit-taking

Published 01/27/2011, 11:55 PM
Updated 01/27/2011, 11:59 PM
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* Corporate flows help yen recoups some losses

* Euro succumbs to profit-taking, Asian sovereign names cited

* Dollar has fiscal troubles of its own

* Market looking ahead to Q4 US GDP figures

* Aussie hurt by fall in commodities

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The yen on Friday recouped some of the losses it made after Standard & Poor's cut Japan's credit rating by a notch, while the euro slipped from two-month highs as players took profits from its recent rally.

The euro's hefty gains from a four-month low hit less than three weeks ago suggested it was ripe for profit-taking, but a mounting number of warnings on inflation from euro zone policy makers is seen supporting the currency for now.

The dollar lapsed to 82.70 yen from around 82.90 yen in late U.S. trade, after initially rallying to as high as 83.22 yen on Thursday.

The pair was overwhelmed by selling from Japanese exporters as well as speculative accounts that were quickly taking profits from the greenback's jump.

The dollar's quick retreat only cemented expectations among traders that its narrow 82.00-83.50 yen trading band will hold for now.

The yen also bounced against the euro, which ran into profit-taking after it hit a two-month peak of 114.02 yen on Thursday. The euro slipped 0.5 percent on the day to 113.35 yen.

The single currency fell 0.2 percent against the dollar, with market participants including an Asian sovereign player said to be taking profits in the pair following its 7.0 percent rise from a four-month trough marked earlier this month.

The euro fell to around $1.3710 from around $1.3730 in late U.S. trade.

It went as high as $1.3760 on Thursday after European Central Bank policy maker Lorenzo Bini Smaghi warned of a rising tide of imported inflation.

That was just the latest hawkish comment from ECB policy makers which have given the market the clear impression that the bank is likely to tighten well ahead of the Federal Reserve.

The next chart barriers for the euro are the Nov. 22 high of $1.3786 and the peak from Nov 10 at $1.3826.

Breaks here could even unleash a further retracement to $1.4283 -- a high hit right after the Fed announced a massive asset purchase programme.

"In the race towards a rate hike, the European Central Bank is going well ahead of the Fed. That points to a gradual decline in the dollar," said Katsunori Kitakura, chief dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust and Banking.

While market players are aware the problem of debt financing in some euro zone countries could linger, the euro zone no longer looks isolated in its suffering given the fiscal troubles in Japan and the United States.

Late Thursday, Moody's reminded investors that it might turn negative on its U.S. rating outlook in the next two years, given how the country's budget deficit has continued to swell.

"Once this knee-jerk reaction (to Japan's downgrade) fades, the USD could be dragged down by its own fiscal concerns," said analysts at CitiFX in a note to clients.

Such perceptions may be behind the dollar's weakness, some market players said, as the the greenback stood near an 11-week low against a basket of major currencies.

The index stood at 77.806, having fallen to 77.594 on Thursday, a level last seen in November.

The immediate focus will be on U.S. data, including the first print of Gross domestic product (GDP) due at 1330 GMT, which is forecast to have grown an annualised 3.5 percent last quarter, up from 2.6 percent the previous quarter.

A strong number could help the dollar against the euro.

It should also benefit risk trades in commodities and equities and growth-leveraged currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars, though recent falls in commodity prices have been sapping momentum for these currencies.

The Aussie dollar slipped 0.3 percent to $0.9890, clinging near its 90-day moving average at around $0.9894.

"It looks like the current adjustment in precious metals is becoming a major correction. I suspect the Aussie will be under pressure for some time," said a trader at a European bank.

Gold hit a four-month low on Thursday. Some emerging countries have seen sharp falls in share prices this month, to the detriment of growth-linked currencies such as the Aussie. (Additional Reporting by Wayne Cole in Sydney; Editing by Joseph Radford)

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