By Tim Hepher
PARIS (Reuters) -Global aviation needs $4 trillion over the next 20 years to fund new commercial deliveries and transform the world's fleet to reduce emissions, leasing firm Avolon said on Tuesday.
Airlines and leasing companies will take delivery of 44,300 commercial passenger aircraft by 2042, of which approximately half will be for replacement and half for growth, the world's third-largest aircraft lessor said.
The world's commercial passenger aircraft fleet is set to nearly double to 46,880 aircraft by 2042, the Dublin-based firm predicted.
Its new report comes ahead of the June 19-25 Paris Airshow where aerospace companies will highlight plans to reach an industry-wide target of net zero emissions by 2050, while wrestling with short-term supply chain problems.
To reach the net zero goal, the industry needs to decouple its environmental impact from rising travel demand, which is expected to grow at 3.5% compared with GDP growth of 2.5%, Avolon said.
Environmental critics say such rapid growth of commercial aviation is at odds with its objectives to curb emissions.
Avolon has said the focus should be on increasing the supply of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF).
"A growing industry will attract the capital required to drive aviation’s sustainability transition," it said.
Growth will be dominated by narrow-body jets including the Airbus A320neo and Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX.
Europe's Airbus will maintain leadership of the narrow-body market with its 53% share of the fleet rising to 58% by 2042, Avolon predicted. Boeing will maintain leadership of the widebody market with a 59% share.
It also predicted a renaissance for the smaller turboprop, and that it could play a part in the shift to greener aviation.
The age of existing turbprops means more of them will be delivered in the coming years as replacements than regional jets - "a reversal of the trend over the past 25 years that could invite new entrants with innovative designs," Avolon said.
China is developing a new turboprop but Brazil's Embraer has put plans for its own new model on hold. The roughly 50-70-seat turboprop market is dominated by French-Italian ATR.
Airbus is meanwhile working on a 100-seat hydrogen-powered plane that it says will be ready for regional service in 2035.
Separately in March, Universal Hydrogen staged the first test flight of an ATR powered partly by an electric engine running on a hydrogen fuel cell.
"I think everyone accepts that green technology will start there and migrate to the bigger-gauge aircraft," Avolon Chief Executive Andy Cronin said, referring to the turboprop segment.
Radical technological change will be less marked in the market for large narrow- or wide-body jets, he said.
"It's not going to be the game-changer that drives emissions: (that) is large-scale production of SAF."