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At all times high, Microsoft is not a buy

Published 07/20/2017, 09:00 AM
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Investing.com - Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) will report Q4 2017 earnings after the closing bell. Analysts are anticipating $0.71 EPS on $24.2 billion in revenue. Microsoft's $74 share price, as of yesterday's close, is at an all-time high. In personal computing, which includes Windows licensing, hardware, and gaming, revenue has been declining in the past two years. However, Thanks to cost cutting, Microsoft's operating profit for the segment is up from $4 to $6.5 billion dollars. Long term doubt remains, given the lack of growth engines in Microsoft's biggest segment. Microsoft's productivity business, which includes Office 365, and LinkedIn (NYSE:LNKD) has grown its revenue 12% in the last year. Despite the increase in revenue, higher costs related to the LinkedIn acquisition have driven the operational income of the segment by 3%. The reason Microsoft shares are at an all-time high is its cloud platform. From a revenue standpoint, Azure has been magnified by investors, at least over the short term. In its last earnings report Microsoft announced 100% growth in revenue for Azure. However, the cloud is not yet significant enough to move the earnings needle. The segment's operating income has declined by 7% over the past nine months, signaling that Microsoft is hardly close to turning its cloud services into the cash cow Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN)'s cloud offering has become. Of Microsoft's three segments, two are seeing operating income decline, while the third is seeing revenues decline with growth bolstered by cost cutting. These facts can't support a PE ratio of above 30, let alone 32. Given current market conditions, we estimate a fair value at $65 per share for a multiple of 28.5.

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