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Swiss unemployment at 11-yr high, but signs of hope

Published 10/07/2009, 03:18 AM
Updated 10/07/2009, 03:21 AM
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* S-adj. unemployment rate 4.1 pct, highest since Apr 1998

* Unadjusted rate at 3.9 pct, highest since Jan 2006

* Number of people in short-time work scheme drops 30 pct

ZURICH, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Unemployment in Switzerland rose to its highest level in more than 11 years in September as more service companies shed jobs, data showed on Wednesday. But economists noted signs the sharp deterioration of the Swiss labour market may be easing and unemployment may avoid setting a post-war record high.

The Swiss unemployment rate rose to a non-seasonally adjusted 3.9 percent in September from 3.8 percent the previous month, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said on Wednesday.

When adjusted for seasonal factors, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1 percent after 4.0 percent the previous month. The unadjusted rate was the highest since January 2006, the seasonally-adjusted level was the highest since April 1998.

Most experts expect unemployment to rise well into 2010 despite recent signs Switzerland is moving out off its deepest recession in more than three decades.

SNB board member Thomas Jordan as well as the economists from the KOF Swiss Economic Institute have warned unemployment may rise to nearly 6 percent next year, which would be the highest level since World War Two.

The SECO said the number of jobless rose by 3,578 to 154,409 in September. The number of vacancies rose by 587 to 13,940.

However, UBS analyst Reto Huenerwadel said the latest SECO release also provided some reason for hope.

"If you look at the number of people on short-time work, it has dropped substantially," he said. "That is a clear sign of life from the labour market. There seems to be a stabilisation."

The SECO said the number of people in this government-subsidised scheme, which allows companies to cut working hours without firing staff, dropped by 30 percent on the month in July, the latest available monthly data.

But the SNB was likely to stick to its loose monetary policy, which includes low interest rates and interventions to stem a rise in the Swiss franc, until the improvement of the economy and the stabilisation of the labour market was secured, Huenerwadel said.

"The situation on the labour market is absolutely key for monetary policy," he said. "We are not near a turning point but we may get there around the turn of the year. But the SNB's December meeting is too early for a change in policy."

Most economists see the central bank on hold during the first half of 2010. Interest rate futures indicate that markets are pricing in the first small tightening in June 2010. <0#FES:> (Reporting by Sven Egenter, editing by Chris Pizzey)

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