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FOREX-Dollar stays near year's lows, Fed comments eyed

Published 06/02/2009, 11:48 PM
Updated 06/02/2009, 11:56 PM

* Jump in U.S. pending home sales boosts risk appetite

* Aussie sets 8-mth highs on stronger-than-expected GDP

* Fed chief Bernanke to speak later, Treasuries eyed

By Aiko Hayashi

TOKYO, June 3 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered above fresh lows for the year on Wednesday after U.S. pending home sales posted their third straight monthly rise, fuelling optimism about the economy and reducing safe-haven demand for the greenback.

Higher-risk currencies such as the New Zealand dollar lost a bit of steam after hitting multi-month highs against the U.S. dollar the previous day, propelled by the generally bullish tone in equity and commodity markets such as oil.

But the Australian dollar set fresh eight-month highs against the dollar and yen after data showed the economy managed to avoid recession in the first quarter of the year and grew more than expected.

U.S. pending home sales posted their biggest jump in 7-½ years in April, suggesting the U.S. housing market, which is key to an economic revival, is on the mend and reinforcing optimism about a global economic recovery.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House of Representatives Budget Committee at 1400 GMT and the market is waiting for clues on whether the Fed will increase or speed up purchases of longer-dated Treasuries to keep down interest rates.

"What's happening in the currency market lately is that the dollar has been sold as Treasury yields have gone up," said Tohru Sasaki, chief FX strategist at JP Morgan in Tokyo.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has risen about 100 basis points to 3.61 percent since the Fed said in March it would buy longer-dated paper, and analysts say a yield of 3.5-4 percent would eventually lead to higher mortgage rates.

"If Bernanke shows a less proactive attitude than market expectations toward increasing the size of purchases of government debt at the Fed's next meeting, long-term interest rates could rise and that could lead the dollar lower," Sasaki said.

DOLLAR STILL NEAR LOWS

The dollar index was flat at 78.504 after falling to 78.334 on Tuesday, its weakest level since mid-December.

The euro was steady at $1.4297 after hitting a 2009 high of $1.4332 on electronic trading platform EBS.

The dollar dipped 0.1 percent to 95.70 yen on EBS, after falling to 95.38 yen earlier.

"Generally speaking it's also hard to think the dollar will strengthen going forward considering the eventual fallout of GM's bankruptcy on the real economy and the mounting (U.S.) budget deficits," said Shinichi Hayashi, a currency trader for Shinkin Central Bank.

General Motors Corp filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, the third-largest filing in U.S. history and the largest ever in U.S. manufacturing.

Among higher-yielding currencies, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.4 percent to $0.6536. It touched an eight-month high of $0.6595 on Tuesday.

Sterling edged down 0.1 percent to $1.6577. It hit a seven-month high of $1.6595 the previous day, according to Reuters data.

But the Australian dollar rose as high as $0.8248 and 78.93 yen after the stronger-than-expected GDP. (Editing by Michael Watson)

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