Shares of Finnish oil refiner Neste Oyj plummeted more than 13% on Wednesday after the company warned that its comparable sales margin for renewable products would be weaker this year than previously anticipated.
In a statement released late Tuesday, the biofuels producer and oil refiner adjusted its margin forecast to $480–$650 per ton, down from the earlier guidance of $600–$800 per ton.
The rest of the guidance for the Renewable Products unit and the Oil Products division remains unchanged.
"Renewable Products' sales price outlook is affected by a decrease in the diesel market price and a continued decrease in U.S. bioticket and renewable credit prices during the second quarter, while waste and residue feedstock prices have remained stable," the company said.
Assuming no change in consensus sales volume estimates and using the midpoint of the current guidance range, Neste could face a potential negative impact of approximately €300 million to its EBITDA, Morgan Stanley estimated in a Tuesday note.
This represents about an 11% decrease from the consensus 2024 group EBITDA of €2.7 billion.
Analysts also highlighted that the current guidance range of $480-650 per ton for 2024 is lower than the consensus expectations of approximately $696 per ton for 2025 and $675 per ton for 2026.
“Neste has previously highlighted increases in mandates and SAF growth as some of the key drivers behind an y-o-y increase in sales margins. However, with the current downgrades seen for 2024, we expect a downward revision for 2025/26 sales margin estimates as well,” analysts wrote.