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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: July 23 - 27

Published 07/22/2012, 07:29 AM
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar came off a two-month low against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, paring almost all of the week’s losses as fresh concerns over the escalating debt crisis in the euro zone saw investors shun riskier assets.

USD/CAD hit 1.0064 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 16; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0125 by close of trade on Friday, down just 0.05% on the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0064, Thursday’s low and a two-month low and resistance at 1.0172, last Monday’s high.

The U.S. dollar strengthened broadly on Friday, amid concerns that Spain will need a full bailout, after the state of Valencia requested financial aid from Madrid. In addition, Spain’s government cut growth forecasts for 2013 and said the economy would stay in recession next year.

The news sent Spain’s borrowing costs soaring, with the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds rising to 7.26%, above the critical 7% threshold widely considered unsustainable in the long run.

The Canadian dollar rose to a record high against the euro on Friday, with EUR/CAD down 0.47% to settle at 1.2309.

The greenback had come under broad selling pressure earlier in the week as market participants focused on testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke amid speculation that weak economic data out of the U.S. would prompt a third round of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank.

Bernanke said growth had lost momentum in the first half of the year and added that progress on cutting the U.S. unemployment rate was “frustratingly” slow.

However, he refrained from indicating whether a fresh round of stimulus was imminent, but reiterated that the central bank was prepared to take further action to support the economic recovery if necessary.

The growth linked Canadian dollar was also boosted by robust corporate earnings and rising commodity prices, which lifted global equities markets.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Canada left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.00% and maintained a hawkish stance in its rate statement.

“While global headwinds are restraining Canadian economic activity, domestic factors are expected to support moderate growth,” the central bank said. “Some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.”

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on developments in Spain. Market participants will also be anticipating U.S. data on second quarter economic growth, in order to gauge the strength of the country’s recovery, while Canada is to release official data on retail sales.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.

Tuesday, July 24

Canada is to produce official data on retail sales, the foremost indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to speak; his comments will be closely watched for clues to the possible future direction of monetary policy. The U.S. is also to release preliminary data on manufacturing activity, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, July 25

The U.S. is to publish official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as data on crude oil stockpiles. This data can be a big market mover for the Canadian dollar, due to the size of the country’s energy sector.

Thursday, July 26

The U.S. is to release official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 27

The U.S. is to round up the week with advance data on second quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity and the foremost indicator of the economy's health. In addition, the University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.


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