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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: June 4 - 8

Published 06/03/2012, 08:20 AM
Investing.com - U.S. grain futures ended the week lower on Friday, with wheat futures plunging nearly 5% and corn and soybean prices falling to multi-month lows as global equity and commodities markets sold off following the release of surprisingly weak U.S. employment data.   

Agricultural commodities were affected by outside influences on Friday. The Department of Labor said Friday that the U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, the smallest increase in a year and far below expectations for a gain of 150,000.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 8.2% from 8.1%, the first increase in 11 months.

The disappointing data prompted investors and large funds to sell riskier growth-linked assets, and move in to safe havens like U.S. Treasuries.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, wheat for July delivery settled at USD6.1325 a bushel by close of trade on Friday. Earlier in the day, prices hit USD6.1125 a bushel, the lowest since May 16.

On the week, wheat futures declined 9.1%, their biggest weekly loss since the week ending June 19, 2011.

Wheat prices plunged almost 5% on Friday, with losses exacerbated by lackluster U.S. export sales data and heavy technical selling.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday that U.S. wheat export sales totaled 319,300 tonnes last week, below expectations for sales of 500,000 tonnes. A week ago, wheat export sales were 827,000 tonnes.    
 
Market participants noted that wheat’s losses accelerated after breaking below their 30-day and 50-day moving averages, triggering fresh sell orders amid bearish chart signals.

Meanwhile, beneficial weather conditions in Russia and Australia eased concerns over a disruption to global supplies, which had provided support to wheat prices in the first two weeks of May.

Wheat prices have lost nearly 15% since touching an eight-month high of USD7.2138 on May 21.

Australia is the world’s second-largest wheat shipper and Russia is the fourth-biggest in the 2012-2013 season, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for July delivery settled at USD5.5225 a bushel by close of trade on Friday. Earlier in the day, prices fell to USD5.5138 a bushel, the lowest since December 3, 2010.

On the week, corn futures retreated 4.72%, the second consecutive weekly loss.

Corn futures were higher earlier in Friday’s session, jumping by as much as 3.5% at one point, boosted by short covering triggered by market talk that China was inquiring about shipments of U.S. corn.

But the rumors were largely dismissed, and corn prices started leaking lower following the downbeat U.S. jobs data, which led investors to flee risky assets.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that U.S. corn export sales totaled 282,700 tonnes last week, well below expectations for sales of 450,000 to 650,000 tonnes.

The U.S. produced 38% of the world's corn last year, making it the both world's largest corn producing nation and the largest exporter of the grain, while China is the world’s largest consumer of the grain.

Meanwhile, soybeans for July delivery settled at USD13.3988 a bushel by close of trade Friday. Earlier in the day, prices fell to USD13.2688 a bushel, the lowest since March 8. On the week, soy futures lost 3.03%.

The USDA confirmed sales of 418,000 tonnes of soybeans last week, below expectations for sales in the range of 450,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

The data showed that China bought a disappointing 57,600 tonnes of old-crop soybeans, and 115,000 tonnes of new crop.

China is the world’s largest soybean consumer and is expected to account for nearly 60% of global trade of the grain in the 2011-12 season, according to the USDA.

Soy prices are down nearly 11.5% since touching a four-year high of USD15.1237 a bushel on May 2, as hedge funds and large institutional investors unwound long positions to secure gains from an impressive 19% rally in the first five months of the year.

Market analysts expect an ever deeper drop heading into the summer, as the soy harvest in South America nears completion and higher prices eventually reduce the amount of Chinese purchases.

Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

In the week ahead, grain traders will focus on the USDA’s weekly crop progress and plating progress reports on Monday, as well as Thursday’s weekly exports data.

Market participants will also continue to monitor weather conditions in South America, Russia and throughout the U.S. Corn-and-Wheat-Belt regions.    

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