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Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: June 4 - 8

Published 06/03/2012, 07:41 AM
USD/CAD
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Investing.com - The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-month high against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, as downbeat U.S. employment data and sustained concerns over Spain’s financial crisis weighed on demand for riskier assets.

USD/CAD hit 1.0441 on Friday, the pair’s highest since November 28; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0406 by close of trade on Friday, climbing 1.39% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.0314, Friday’s low and resistance at 1.0448, the high of November 28.

Risk sentiment came under pressure after the Department of Labor said on Friday that the U.S. economy added just 69,000 jobs in May, far below expectations for a gain of 150,000, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2% from 8.1%.

A separate report showed that manufacturing activity in the U.S. slowed in May. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index fell to 53.5 from 54.8 in April, against expectations for a decline to 53.9.

The weak data added to concerns that the economic recovery in the U.S. is losing momentum, which could lead to a third round of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Investors were also jittery after data on Friday showed that unemployment in the euro zone rose to a record high of 11% in April, adding to concerns over the worsening of the euro zone’s debt crisis.

The data came after the yield on Spanish 10-year bonds climbed to a euro-era high of 6.7% on Wednesday, as the lack of a convincing plan to recapitalize stricken lender Bankia fuelled fears that Madrid will be forced to seek an international bailout.

In Canada, official data showed that the country’s gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 1.9% in the first quarter, below the Bank of Canada’s forecast for growth of 2.5%.

In addition, light sweet crude futures for delivery in July settled at USD83.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by close of trade on Friday, plunging 8.8% over the week and posting the largest loss since the week ended September 23.

Raw materials, including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

In the week ahead, investors will be eyeing the BoC’s interest rate decision.

Market participants will also be watching Thursday’s testimony on the economic outlook by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for any indications that the central bank is considering more monetary easing.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 4

The U.S. is to produce official data on factory orders, a leading indicator of production.

Tuesday, June 5

The BoC is to announce its benchmark interest rate; the announcement is to be accompanied by the central bank’s rate statement. Canada is also to publish official data on building permits, a leading gauge of future construction activity.

In the U.S., the Institute for Supply Management is to release a report on non-manufacturing activity, a key indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, June 6

The U.S. is to release revised data on nonfarm productivity, followed by government data on crude oil stockpiles, while the Federal Reserve is to release its Beige Book.

Thursday, June 7

Canada is to publish a report by the Richard Ivey School of Business on its purchasing managers’ index.

Also Thursday, the U.S. is to release government data on initial unemployment claims, while Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is to appear before the Joint Economic Committee, in Washington.

Friday, June 8

Canada is to publish industry data on housing starts, in addition to official data on employment change and the unemployment rate. The country is also to release official data on the trade balance.

The U.S. is to round up the week with government data on its trade balance.


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