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Grain futures - Weekly outlook: January 29 - February 3

Published 01/29/2012, 09:36 AM
Investing.com - U.S. grain futures ended the week mixed on Friday, with corn futures rallying amid indications of strong demand for U.S. supplies, while wheat and soybeans edged lower as traders continued to monitor weather conditions in major grain producers across the Black Sea region and in South America.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, corn futures for March delivery settled at USD6.4212 a bushel by close of trade on Friday, gaining 4.4% on the week, the biggest weekly advance since the week ended December 23.

Corn futures rose 1.1% on Friday after the USDA said that weekly export sales of corn in the week ended January 20 totaled 1.041 million tonnes, the largest amount in three months and above expectations for sales of 0.85 million tonnes.

The figure was nearly 25% higher than sales in the previous week and almost 24% above the four-week moving average. The primary destinations were to Japan, Mexico, South Korea and China.

The robust U.S. export numbers fuelled speculation that major global corn importers were switching to U.S. supplies, as hot and dry weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil damaged crops in those countries and reduced the quality of the harvest.  

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Friday that temperatures were expected to exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in some of Argentina’s major corn-growing areas through February 2, while adding that rain during the period will be scarce in most areas.

Corn prices have rallied nearly 7.5% since falling to a one-month low on January 18, amid growing concerns over South American corn supplies.

Traders have been focusing on weather conditions and crop prospects in Southern Hemisphere countries in recent weeks, as most Northern Hemisphere grain crops have been harvested by now.

The heat of the Southern Hemisphere's summer has been compounded by La Niña, a phenomenon in which tropical waters in the Pacific Ocean turn unusually cold.

Meanwhile, wheat for March delivery rallied 5.2% on the week to settle at USD6.4725 a bushel by close of trade on Friday, the second consecutive weekly gain. Prices rose to a three-week high of USD6.5800 on Thursday.

Wheat prices fell for the first time in seven days on Friday, as investors cashed out of the market to lock in gains from a rally triggered by speculation that major global producer Russia planned to curb grain exports.

Russian officials have said in the past that grain exports will be curbed after reaching shipments of 24 million to 25 million tonnes, a level widely expected to be breached in March or April.      

The country, once the world's third largest grain exporting nation, introduced an 11-month ban on grain exports in August 2010 after the worst drought in at least half a century wiped out a third of its grain crops.

Elsewhere on the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for March delivery settled at USD12.1812 a bushel by close of trade Friday. On the week, prices gained 1.97%.

Soy prices edged lower on Friday, retreating from Thursday’s two-week high after USDA data showed that U.S. farmers sold 592,200 tonnes of soybeans, down 53% from a week earlier and 21% lower than the four-week average.

Meanwhile, traders continued to monitor weather conditions in Brazil. According to agricultural meteorologists some parts of Brazil received beneficial rains in the past two days.

However, prices remained supported amid speculation that rainfall will not be ample enough to relieve crop stress after weeks of dry weather.

Agricultural commodities received a lift earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday pushed back the timing of a possible interest rate increase until late 2014 and indicated that the bank may embark on a third round of quantitative easing.

The U.S. dollar came under broad selling pressure, boosting the appeal of U.S. crops to overseas buyers. The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies, tumbled 1.98% on the week to settle at 78.94 by close of trade Friday, the lowest since December 9.
 
Corn is the biggest U.S. crop, valued at USD66.7 billion in 2010, followed by soybeans at USD38.9 billion, government figures show. Wheat was fourth at USD13 billion, behind hay.

In the week ahead, grain traders will continue to monitor South America's corn and soybean crop and how La Nina weather patterns will affect yields. Russian and Ukraine winter-wheat crop conditions will also be in focus.

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